Big Game Preview

Readers!

The big game is upon us.

Today’s newsletter is going to be fully focused on background and betting angles for Seattle vs New England on Sunday.

As always, we’ll keep our winning ways going and close with this week’s longer list of Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

Why is SBLX unique?

First, this matchup is a very unexpected one.

As Nate Silver cites in his preview article, either team would finish as the second-biggest preseason long-shot champion ever, behind the 2000 St. Louis Rams.

The Patriots came in at 80-1 and the Seahawks 60-1. A final featuring two long-shots like this has never happened.

Second, the Seahawks are as big of a favorite as we’ve seen since the Colts closed at -5 vs the Saints in 2010.

The average point spread in the fifteen years since then projected a margin of victory of less than a field goal.

Here are those fifteen lines and totals:

We’ll keep these factors in our mind as we look at trends and choose our bets.

Let’s look at the game category by category.

Spread and Total Bets

The most notable spread trend I found for the big game is as follows:

1. Big game winners are 50-7-2 against the spread (88%).

This record includes all winning underdogs, as well as favorites with a covering margin of victory.

That figure is materially higher than the regular season metric, where winners are 81% against the spread over the past 20 years.

Outside of the Rams in 2022, a favorite hadn’t won while failing to cover since 2009.

Is this a good reason to lay the points with Seattle (or take New England on the moneyline)?

My answer is: probably not, given a relatively small sample size and the tight spreads in SBs we cited above (making it hard for winners to avoid covering).

It does get me curious about how coaching decisions might shift under the spotlight and reduce the instance of favored teams winning tight games.

Two more trends stood out to me: one on halftime betting, and one on total points.

2. Teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or SB are 19-34-3 (36%) against the second-half spread since 2005.

This one seems notable to me, and worth a live look and a bias toward whoever is trailing at the half!

I can’t imagine a coach or QB feeling more pressure than when they sit one-half away from becoming an NFL champion.

This could encourage conservative play calling and decision making, giving the trailing team an advantage on an algorithm-generated halftime line.

3. There are good reasons to bet the over in the big game (h/t Nate Silver on this angle).

• Championship games are played in good weather (benefits offense)

• Teams are healthier after two weeks off

• Offenses get slightly better over the course of the season, controlling for other factors.

The 16 SBs with the lowest pregame total (under 40 points) wound up with an average of 39.6 points scored versus a Vegas line of 36.

Here’s a visual:

Player Props

Action Network’s primer provided two interesting tables on the longest running prop streaks for both teams (depicted below):

The most interesting “mainstream” opportunities that stand out to me revolve around Drake Maye, Kenneth Walker and Kayshon Boutte.

1. Maye - In the AFC Championship game, Maye rushed 10 times for 65 yards and a touchdown; in the Wild Card Round, he rushed 10 times for 66 yards. His rushing yards line sits at 36.5 yards.

2. Walker - As noted above, Walker hasn’t had more than 20 rush attempts in his last 23 games. Even with Charbonnet out, Walker has struggled in pass protection (George Holani played heavily on passing snaps last game), and Walker’s line sits at 18.5 rush attempts.

3. Boutte - Boutte has been Maye’s deep option all season. In the AFC Championship Game, he only had one reception, but had six targets (three deep targets) and in the other playoff games he had three catches of at least 25 yards. His longest reception line sits at 17.5.

Let’s get to the bets!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week we won again!

Alexander Zverev lost a five set thriller to Carlos Alcaraz, but easily covered the 6.5 game spread, winning us one half-unit.

With that outcome, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 23.15 units, with a positive 16% ROI.

A $100 bettor would be ahead $2,315 following these bets! We’ll update this regularly.

Based on the analysis above, I am making the following bets this week:

• Over 45.5 points on FanDuel @-108 for 0.5 units

• Kayshon Boutte longest reception over 17.5 yards on BallyBet @-108 for 0.5 units

• Rhamondre Stevenson under 53.5 rush yards on DraftKings @-112 for 0.5 units

• Drake Maye over 35.5 rush yards on BallyBet @-118 for 0.5 units

If you want my full rationale beyond what’s above, and additional props, take the free subscription week I’m offering and come chat with me on Juice Reel!

Next week we are on to college basketball!

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