Divisional Round Betting

NFL Wild Card weekend brought great drama.

There were 12 fourth-quarter lead changes over the weekend, a record for any postseason in its entirety, and we’re only through the initial round!

I’m looking forward to another round of great playoff football, so today, I’ll write a quick-hitter reviewing three betting trends that may or may not have relevance in this weekend’s tilts.

As always, we’ll close with this week’s Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

Trend #1 Rest Disparity

Last week we identified the concept of “rest edge” as the driver for our winning futures bet on the Raiders to win 7 games or fewer.

The concept says: teams that enter games with more rest than their opponents have historically outperformed expectations.

This trend has also held true in the playoffs, as teams playing on short rest in the Divisional Round or later are 6-15 straight up (SU) dating back to the 2002 division realignment.

In the most extreme case: Seattle is on 14 days rest vs the 49ers on 6 days rest. Teams that have had that big of a rest advantage in the playoffs are undefeated (7-0) over the last 30+ years.

Who does this apply to? 49ers, Bills, Texans.

Is this a real angle? Not obviously, given the data above.

Many teams with a playoff rest disadvantage are facing top seeds on bye who were stronger than them during the regular season. It would make sense they’d have a losing record straight up. Give this minimal weight.

Trend #2 Underperforming Winners

The concept is: Teams that win but don't cover the spread in their previous playoff game, who are not off a bye week, overperform expectations.

Such teams are 21-12 against the spread (ATS) over the past 22 years, and 8-2 ATS in the 2020s.

Who does this apply to? Rams.

Is this a real angle? Maybe, here’s my thinking.

I see logic in the idea that the betting public could bring recency bias into evaluating teams that cost them money last week. If the Rams line was lower because of a one-week sample than it might be based on a larger sample, that would create value. Give this moderate weight.

Trend #3 Extreme Weather

The concept is: Dome teams (or quarterbacks) underperform in cold weather.

Since 2003, 13 dome teams played an outdoor playoff game on the road in under 30-degree weather. They went 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS.

In addition, Matt Stafford is 1-9 SU in his last ten games outdoors in rain/snow and the Rams are 2-8 SU in their last ten games in Chicago.

Who does this apply to? Rams, based on a projected temperature in Chicago of 15 degrees (and a 50% chance of snow).

Is this a real angle? Yes, though I don’t believe it deserves tremendous weight

The statistics above are facts, but are not mapped to the context of this Bears’ pass defense, which allowed 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love and an abysmal +0.28 EPA per passing play according to Next Gen Stats.

Chicago’s defense was essentially giving up one total point for every four pass attempts (!!) against the Packers. Give this trend moderate weight.

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-1, disappointingly losing one half-unit.

We started off the week with an exciting half-unit win/cover from the Miami Hurricanes on Thursday night, as they advanced to the college football championship game.

Our Jacksonville bet had great closing line value (we bet Jags +1.5, line closed at Jags -2), but faded when the Jaguars couldn’t stop Josh Allen’s final drive after taking a lead with 4 minutes remaining.

With those outcomes, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 21.15 units, with a positive 15% ROI. We’ll update this every week.

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week:

• 6-point teaser: Seahawks -1 (teased from -7) and Bills +7.5 (teased from +1.5) @ -125 on Caesars for 1 unit

I like this bet for three reasons:

1) Both lines cross the key numbers of 3 and 7.

2) This creates the opportunity to combine a moneyline bet on Seattle (playoffs don’t allow ties), with a bet against a Denver team that went 3-9 ATS as a favorite this year and notched 9 of their 14 wins by 7 points or fewer.

3) Both games list totals below 46 points, so the value of 6 additional points against the spread is greater.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!