Full Interview with the #1 NBA Props Bettor

Jon: Tell me about your background -- how did you get into sports betting?

Calvin: I've always been a numbers guy, preferring Math to English and concrete answers to ambiguity. I started with daily fantasy sports (DFS) about 10 years ago as a hobby. When sports betting became legal in Iowa about 5-6 years ago, I took advantage of new account bonuses. I signed up for about 5 different sportsbooks, strategically using bonus bets. I withdrew my initial $5,000 deposit after playing through the bonus bets, and started with a $2,000 bankroll from the casinos' bonuses.

I began as a $10 bettor, focusing on player props. For a couple of years, I broke even, which is actually very good considering the quality of bets I made, and the terrible reasoning behind them. I got more serious about research because I enjoyed it, it was like a puzzle. I love basketball and getting into the nerdy discussions about it. I noticed patterns, trends, and minutes allocations that weren't being accounted for by the books and slowly started winning.

I turned that $2,000 into $4,000, then went up to $20 units, then $8,000 and $40 units. I kept all the winnings rolling over in play. I was lucky enough not to have medical bills or kids, so I could keep growing as I won. It just grew and grew, and I've been riding the train ever since – now with units forty times larger than where I began.

Jon: That's awesome, congrats. Tell me more about you -- where are you from? It sounds like this has become your full-time job, but it wasn't in the beginning, is that right?

Calvin: It's still not full-time, but it's as close as you can get without quitting my main job. With the limiting that has been coming and will come, I can’t quit my main job because of the uncertainty around getting money down. I grew up in New England until I was a teenager. Then I moved to the Midwest, to the suburbs of Chicago. I moved out to Iowa about 6 years ago for a job and have been here ever since. I live out in the farmland and I love everything about it. I spend my winters betting basketball and my summers riding my motorcycle around the country. I like to cook, and I have a wonderful girlfriend who I spend time with whenever possible. Most of my free time though is spent looking at basketball in one form or another.

Jon: You’re living a sports bettor’s dream! Is there a basketball team you're a fan of?

Calvin: Funny, so, the way I would describe it is, I'm a Bulls hater. I root for the Bulls, so I am perpetually miserable. Because of that, I've mostly stopped watching the Bulls games now. My fandom is almost dead with betting taking over. If I have a bet on one game and the Bulls are playing in another, I'm watching the game with the bet.

Jon: Let's talk about your betting process. How do you analyze or identify bets for the day or upcoming days?

Calvin: The first step is minutes. How many minutes is the player going to play? That's very often glossed over by casual bettors, and it's the most important part of a bet. There is nothing more important than the number of minutes the player is going to play.

After minutes, it's about injuries. Is the player questionable or probable? Did they miss the last game? Are they perpetually injured so they don't play back-to-backs anymore? Which teammates are injured?

Then it's about who the player is going to play next to. For example, a high-usage bench player might have different usage if they're moved into the starting lineup playing next to different teammates. So it's how those minutes line up with their teammates so that you know what their role is going to be and if their role is going to change.

A perfect example would be Jalen Williams on the Thunder. He was playing center when Chet [Holmgren] got hurt, and before Isaiah Hartenstein came back. So his rebound props were a great time for me, just taking the overs for many games in a row until the sportsbooks adjusted. But then Isaiah Hartenstein came back. Jalen Williams' minutes did not change, but he's not rebounding as much because Isaiah Hartenstein's taking all of them. So then you go the other route - you go under on his rebounds props until the sportsbooks adjust back the other way.

Sportsbooks are generally too slow to adjust to changes in rotation or players' usage. They have historical data that they use to set lines that combine with their models about recent trends. And they're almost all too weighted historically. So it'll often take a couple of games for a sportsbook to catch up to the new trend in the players that are playing.

Jon: How do you triangulate your own assumptions about minutes and how important are injuries?

Calvin: Injuries play very heavily into what I'm betting. It's one of the main edges that I think I have - being able to estimate the percentage chance a questionable player will play. When everyone's healthy, that's when the edge is the lowest because that's when everything's the most projectable by models and sophisticated computer outlooks, which I don't have.

If I can say, "Oh, Khris Middleton has two ankles that are made of cement," when he's questionable, that's way different than Nikola Jokic being questionable when he ends up playing every game. Those cases are not the same. That's where an edge can come from. If a book is setting a line as if there's a 50% chance a player sits, and I think there's a 70% chance he sits, I have edges that I should be betting on.

Jon: How much of your analysis is based on your engagement and experience following teams and watching games versus using third-party models or technology?

Calvin: My knowledge of basketball and watching the games will make me think, "Oh, let me look into this player situation in more detail." I don't have enough time in the day or computer algorithms to look at every single player's bet for every single game.

I'll use resources like Add More Funds, a website where you can analyze a player's performance with different lineups. I'll also look at NBA.com for advanced stats like potential assists. So then ideally I have a 500-minute sample size. I can see that this player averages 20 points per 36 minutes with this other guy on the bench. But when that other guy is playing in the lineup with the player I'm looking at, he only averages 15 points per 36 minutes. That means there's an edge to be had.

Jon: How do you choose which specific bets to make once you've done your research?

Calvin: Generally speaking, but not always, I will play combo stats when I'm more certain about the minutes. If I have a player who I think plays 5 more minutes than the books think he's going to play, that means his points, rebounds, and assists will all likely be projected too low. So I will incorporate all three of those stats, or at least two, depending on what type of player it is, and combine them.

If I have a player who, when he plays more minutes, does not necessarily rebound the ball better, I'll leave the rebounds out and bet over on just points. Or I'll go with over assists if he's not a high-volume shooter, because some players, when they play more minutes, don't shoot more shots. This can happen if they're playing with star teammates more for example.

There's also washing out of hot streaks and cold streaks. When a player shoots 5 for 6 from the three point line, 5 games in a row, people think that means something. I disagree! I think that doesn't mean anything. The important number is the 6 attempts, not the 5 makes. I presume the player’s shooting percentage will normalize.

When I'm looking at betting assists, what I'm going to focus on is “potential assists” per game. A potential assist is when a player's teammate attempts a shot from that player's pass. If a player has 10 potential assists, that means his teammates shot the ball 10 times. If he has 5 real assists, that means they went in 5 times. Those stats are free on NBA.com in the player tracking, passing section. They will tell me if a recent spike or drop in assists is just a fluke, or a new trend.

All these things are much more important to me than hot streaks and cold streaks, and so I can get a few different edges by washing out the actual results and betting based on attempts instead.

Jon: And so process wise, what's the last stage of deciding on a bet? It sounds like you're saying -- if you have an edge on both stats, placing a bet that rolls them together may compound that edge. Probably there's also less variance when there's more independent stats contributing – is that true?

Calvin: It's more about less variance than it is about a compounded edge. It's more about the fact that if the player is not doing one thing on the court, then he should be doing something else instead.

Jon: Once you've done your research and identified situations, how do you decide where to bet and how much?

Calvin: I have several sportsbooks where I can't bet more than $2 because of my winning, so I don't even look at those. I’ve been limited almost everywhere. I use Juice Reel to compare lines and capitalize on opportunities, and I can set a price in my head that I’m willing to go up to. Then I can bet the same thing at 5 or 6 different limited sportsbooks by comparing the lines on Juice Reel, and seeing who is offering what I consider a good price, until I have the amount of money down that I’m looking to bet.

I do all my analysis in my head, just using a calculator. For sizing, I generally bet in flat unit amounts because I'm trying to provide a good product for people subscribing to my bets. Almost every bet is whatever amount is required to win one unit. If I'm laying -130, I'm going to bet more than if I'm laying -110 so that I can win one unit either way. Every now and then I'll have a 2-unit bet, but most bets are exactly one unit.

If I was only doing this without considering subscribers to my bets, I would weight my bets more, putting 1.3 or 1.5 units on bets where I think I have slightly bigger edges. But that's harder for people to follow.

Jon: When you do go big, is that based on a bigger edge?

Calvin: Yes, it's based on a bigger edge and lower variance. If I think a bet has a higher chance of winning because I'm more certain about why it's going to win, I'll put more money on it. I won't do that, even though I potentially should, on super fluky bets like injury-related situations. If I'm putting 2 units on a player’s over and their star teammate gets ruled in, the bet is dead before the game starts. That's a frustrating experience for subscribers.

Jon: Do you ever use alternate lines, in cases where it you anticipate a more extreme outcome from a player, in order to increase returns?

Calvin: All the time. I love picking my spots with alt lines. When a player goes over his line, I look at how much they're going over by and what percent of the time they're going way over compared to barely going over.

Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - he's the definition of consistency. He's scoring exactly 30 points every night without variation. His lowest point total in a game is probably 29, and his highest is probably 31. I'll pretty much never take an alt line on him because he's so level.

Players who are streaky - I'll absolutely take alt lines on them. Like Jaden Hardy of the Mavericks - when Luka or Kyrie is out and Hardy is healthy, half the games he'll drop 0 points, half the games he'll drop 30.

I just go through and look at the game logs manually, count how many times they go over their alt lines, and do the math. My approach is: when this player plays the minutes, how big can that be. I need a bigger edge to be comfortable making alt line bets. I won't bet as many alt lines as regular lines - I want more confidence to place those bets.

Jon: How do you think about bankroll management and bet sizing for someone looking to build their own way up?

Calvin: First, we need to figure out if that person is a winning bettor or not. If they're not a winning bettor, the rule about bet sizing is to bet as little as you can while still having fun watching the game and staying motivated enough to do research on the bet. Once you've won one hundred units, then it's time to look at sizing up.

If $10 is enough for a bettor to do their research, look into player's lines, look at statistics, really investigate why they're placing that bet -- then $10 is a great bet. Once they've won a hundred more of those $10 bets than they've lost, and once they have a profit of a thousand dollars, then they should move up.

But if $10 isn't enough to get someone to do their research on the bet and they're just picking random stuff, then $10 isn't a big enough bet, because they're not motivated enough to do their research and find good info, while also avoiding placing goofy bets just for fun.

Jon: Do you watch all your bets on TV? How much are you still sweating outcomes?

Calvin: I watch games every night. It's much less stressful than it used to be because I know whether my bet is good before the game starts. If I bet the line when it opens at 20.5 and bet the over, and then right before tipoff the line is 22.5, that's a good bet. I don't care how it does or if it wins - I made a good bet.

I'm very rarely putting enough money down on a bet to sweat about it in terms of my bankroll. I've probably done that 3-4 times this season where I placed a bet of like 3 units where I'm actually thinking "Oh please, please." But before the game starts, that's when I know whether the bet is good.

Since I don't have a computer model, closing line value is the main way I evaluate whether my bet is good or not. If every sharp bettor agrees with me and the price moves, that's great for my confidence. That's some of the most useful information I have in terms of deciding whether my bet is good.

Jon: What tools would you recommend for someone who wants to get into player prop betting?

Calvin: First, follow every beat reporter for every NBA team on social media. Make lists about teams so you can quickly pull up beat reporters -- like Portland Trail Blazers reporters -- to see the most recent tweets about injuries. Betting injury-based props is the easiest way for a new bettor to win. When you're starting out, look at the injury report, study the injuries and quotes from coaches, and bet based on whether you think players are going to play or not.

I also look at what the DFS industry thinks about player minutes. I'll check what various DFS tout companies are projecting for minutes to see if I'm off base. If someone like Stokastic thinks a player is going to get 30 minutes, and I think they're going to get 25 minutes, that makes me question my analysis and double-check my work.

Add More Funds is the best prop betting website ever made in history, and it's free. That's going to be your go-to place for research, specifically to analyze players with different lineups and look at their ball-handling data, shooting data, and rebounding data, in the “WOWY” section of the website under the NBA tab.

Jon: Are there any podcasts you listen to?

Calvin: I listen to Circles Off and Dunked On. Those are the two that are probably useful in terms of gambling information.

On Youtube, I’ll watch the DFS videos from Tory Langley and DK_DFS to get a read on each game in terms of who’s questionable or out, and how that impacts the minutes of the rest of the team.

Even if I’m not playing much DFS anymore, it’s a great starting point for me just to get a feel for the next day’s games and build a roadmap in my head of what player’s props I should be looking at in detail. The rest are just typical NBA discussion podcasts, where there's no gambling info.

Jon: Can you share a memorable win or uniquely winning scenario?

Calvin: A great example of Poisson distribution is Donovan Clingan. This man is hilarious because he averages one foul every 5 minutes - he can't be in the game without playing MMA on the basketball court. When he stays out of foul trouble, his ceiling is so high, but he just can't stop hitting people. He's 27 feet tall and tries to block every shot, as all rookies do.

When he blocks it, I win money. When he hits the player in the face instead, I lose money. But I'm so profitable on him because I don't just play his baseline points, rebounds, assists, or blocks - I'm parlaying them together and taking alt lines. I'm pretty sure I've lost more bets than I've won on him, but I'm profitable at about 100%-200% ROI because when I win on him, I win massive amounts from parlaying his alternate lines.

I hit a +4000 line where it was his alternate points, alternate rebounds, and alternate blocks, and he went over on all three against the Minnesota Timberwolves because he finally stopped hitting people in the face. He had a game where Deandre Ayton was out, and he got to play the 30 minutes he should have been playing the whole time. That's all you need with a player like that who you're taking alternates on - one game where he hits his ceiling as opposed to hoping he hits his 50% line every game.

Jon: Have you had any painful losing streaks?

Calvin: Last season, after the first week, I lost maybe 17 out of 21 days at the beginning of the NBA season. I won the first 2 or 3 days, and then I had this brutal stretch. That was nerve-wracking because it was the beginning of the season. I was thinking, "Did I lose my edge? Did the books fix their props to where I can't beat them anymore?" If it had happened mid-season after having winning months, I wouldn't have been bothered. But having it happen right at the start when things were different - I was very worried about that. It turned out to just be running cold within the normal bounds of negative variance.

Jon: Do you have any plans to expand your betting beyond NBA player props?

Calvin: I've tried betting NFL and baseball props every year, and I break even or lose a bit of money every time. I don't have the same edge in NFL or college football or baseball that I do in NBA because I don't intuitively know the games as well. When I'm looking at basketball and see a player having an outlier game where he's rebounding at a crazy rate for three games in a row, I can say, "Oh, it's because he played against these teams that always allow rebounds to forwards." With football, I couldn't tell you why things are happening.

I am fully aware now that I can't win at football or baseball, so I stay away. Not betting something is just as important to winning money as betting something that wins.

But summer basketball - that's where the biggest edges are! Summer League, Olympics, and preseason NBA betting is my favorite time of the year. That's where I bet the most money. Almost every year when I've won a certain amount by April or May, I'll wait and raise my unit size at the start of Summer League rather than during the NBA playoffs because the edges are so much bigger.

They're the most garbage games in the world, but that's where the advantage comes from. What I said about the Timberwolves being healthy all year - it's the complete opposite for Summer League. Players are getting ruled out and no one knows about it except for me and a few other crazy people who are also following Summer League for some reason. The variance is so high, which is why it's a winning bet when you’re ahead of the news.

Jon: What’s your point of view on being limited at sportsbooks because of your winning? Have you tried any countermeasures?

Calvin: One of the reasons I was able to grow my bankroll is because I avoided getting limited for so long on many books. Here are some of my personal beliefs about avoiding limits -- you must do as much as you can to look like a recreational bettor without actually being one.

One thing I do is withdraw and deposit money frequently. I'll withdraw from one sportsbook and deposit in another just to have activity on my transaction history. If you're betting and keeping your money in the sportsbook forever, you're going to look more sharp than someone who's depositing just 2 units and then constantly moving money around. That's what the sportsbook wants to see.

When it comes to boosted bets, you should never use those on bets where you have a real edge. The boost itself gives you an edge on a square bet. Using boosts on sharp bets or ones where you get closing line value is a red flag to the books. The first people they limit are the promo hunters - people who only use boosts and don't bet normally - because the book won't make money off them long-term, so they're happy to cancel their business.

I use odds boosts for bets where I don't think I have an edge and am just having fun. I'll bet NFL sides with an odds boost because if you're expected to lose 2.5% betting NFL sides at kickoff, getting a boost means you're expected to win money while looking like a square. It's the best of both worlds.

Also, if you're always getting the best price at a book, they're not going to like that. If odds range from -110 to -140 across books, sometimes it's better to take -115 instead of always betting the best number. The books know whether you got the best price or not - they have proprietary odds software. If they see you only getting the best price on everything you play, they're going to limit you much faster.

Jon: This seems counter to my general advice around line shopping, but I guess if you're losing, they won't limit you no matter what.

Calvin: None of this is worth worrying about until you're limited at your first book. Until then, just focus on winning. See if you can win and how much you can win. Once that first limit comes, then it's time to start thinking about these things.

I used to place certain bets just to look like a recreational bettor, but now that I'm letting people subscribe to my bets, I don't do that anymore. I'm not placing any stupid bets on purpose because I want to provide the best possible direction for my subscribers. But understanding how to manage your betting accounts was crucial to my early success and ability to build my bankroll before the books caught on.

The key is finding balance between showing enough recreational betting patterns to stay under the radar while still maximizing your edge when you find it. It's like playing a game within the game - you need to be sharp with your bets but look square with your betting patterns.

Jon: Once getting limited across the board, you’ve mentioned two paths -- you can get into underground betting with bookies, or you can become someone who monetizes their edge through advising the masses.

I’m guessing your skill set could open other opportunities, like working for companies who set lines or working for a book, or even writing a book your approach. In your dream scenario where do you take this distinctive skill set?

Calvin: I don't really know what's next for me because I don't know what happens when the last limit comes. If I don't have enough subscribers by the time I can't bet big anywhere, that's going to be a problem. If I'm not making enough money because people aren't subscribed to my profile and I can't bet any money at sportsbooks, that's scary. If I have enough subscribers to the point where I'm giving away thousand-dollar bets but that money is coming back to me via subscription revenue, then I'm good, and my subscribers can make the money, while giving me a piece of it via the subscription fee.

As for working for an NBA team or a book, I think there are much better bettors they could hire if they were comfortable with that route. I don't have any programming skills, so I can't computerize anything I do. I don't know how a company would value that if it's all just in my head. If a sportsbook asked me to be a trader, I would love to give that a shot, but I don't know how they'd hire me if I can't put what I'm doing into a computer.

Jon: Well, you're good enough that they might want to just figure that out for you!

Calvin: I would jump at the chance.

Jon: It sounds like a fantastic outcome would be getting enough subscribers that you de-risk the scenario where you’re limited. And it sounds like you're not afraid that books are suddenly going to get too sharp across the board.

Calvin: No, because if the books fix one thing, they're going to create a problem for themselves on the other side. If they over-adjust to everyone betting unders, then the overs are going to have value. If they over-adjust to overs, then unders will have value. There's always going to be value somewhere. They can't set a thousand lines for a thousand different player props and have all of them be accurate. I don't see a day where that happens. The best outcome for me is definitely having enough subscribers, to have them bet my edges for me and win themselves money, while having me get a piece of it from the subscription.

Jon: Do you throw 500 bucks on Bulls season futures every year just to disappoint yourself?

Calvin: Oh God, no! If anything, I'd bet their alternate unders. Freaking Bulls, man! No.

Jon: But as a Bulls fan, they're also bad at tanking, so they'll win their 35 games just to mess up the draft situation!

Calvin: Yeah, very true. But I don't bet based on fandom anymore. I used to, and I've long since realized how dumb that is.

Jon: Any last advice for our Readers?

Calvin: Be wary of things that seem too good to be true when you're picking a prop, when you're picking a person to follow, when you're picking a side or a total of any kind. If something seems too good to be true, check your math. You're missing something. Vegas knows a lot. If they have a line that you think is a hundred points off, you're the one who's off, not Vegas.