How to Tail and Profit

As we covered last week, finding a great bettor willing to share their wagers in real time, at an attractive price, is a big part of generating betting profit.

Once you’ve done that the rest is easy, right? Just copy their bets and watch the money roll in?

Wrong - tailing well is a skill!

Excellent bettors often have access to different sportsbooks than you, and their bets remove value when books adjust lines based on their sharp action.

You’ll often be faced with the question of whether a bet is still worth making at less attractive vig, or at a line that’s moved one or more points in the wrong direction.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the books and giving to the bettors, I’m pumped to share my approach to tailing well, and maximizing the value you receive from subscribing to a top bettor.

Today we’ll talk through optimal tailing strategy, from (1) how much to bet, to (2) where and when to bet, to (3) if you should bet (or pass) based on line movement.

As always, we’ll look to continue winning with our basketball bets of the week.

Let’s get after it.

Step One: Bankroll, and Sportsbooks

To start, let’s talk through basic foundation I recommend for skillfully tailing a great bettor:

• Setting a bankroll and choosing a bet size

• Having accounts at the right sportsbooks

How Much to Bet

The best bettors in Juice Reel’s marketplace have an ROI between 3% and 12%.

This is important because the ROI of the handicapper you tail informs your expected ROI and is a key input in determining a bankroll and bet size.

To produce the recommendations below, I assume you’ll have slippage of approximately 30% ROI from the bettor you tail because you’ll bet some worse lines. So if their ROI is 3% — yours will be 2%, and if their ROI is 10% — yours will be around 7%.

I used a mathematical formula called Kelly Criterion, interpreted conservatively, to build this table. Kelly functions to maximize your long-term expected value while protecting you from losing your bankroll during inevitable downswings. (More detail on my approach for those who want it is in the appendix of this newsletter.)

The table shows the size bankroll you’ll need based on the ROI of the handicapper you tail.

So if you are tailing a handicapper with a 6.5% ROI, and you want to place $100 bets, you’ll need a bankroll of $8,400 ($100 × 84 units) to optimize your results and protect your downside.

To bring this to life using my own experience:

• I subscribe to CalvinAndHobo, the exceptional NBA player props bettor I wrote about in December.

• He has a ~10.5% ROI, and tailing him has made me more than $20,000 in profit since Christmas, even with slippage on the lines I bet.

• I use a $27,000 bankroll to place $500 “one unit” bets on his plays, matching the 54 unit bankroll recommended in our table above.

If the bettor you are tailing places more parlays, or concentrates on long-odds bets using alt-lines, you’ll need an even larger bankroll than those described above.

The good news is, if you tail a winning bettor for long enough, your bankroll will increase via winning, so please proceed conservatively at the start!

Where to Bet

The next foundational thing to get right is where to bet.

I recommend having at least 3 sportsbooks at your disposal, and preferably as many as are available in your state.

This will allow you to find better lines, have access to more bets, and reduce the slippage you experience from tailing.

Without getting too deep on my reasoning, I’d prioritize regulated books in the following order to maximize access and account longevity.

I’ve included Juice Reel affiliate links and promo codes where Juice Reel has the best available sign-up bonus, in case readers are ready to add sportsbooks now and want to support this newsletter in an easy way.

1. FanDuel

2. DraftKings

3. Caesars (promo code: VAULT17DYW)

4. Hard Rock

5. Bet365

6. Fanatics

7. ESPN Bet

8. BetMGM (promo code: JUICEREEL)

9. BetRivers

I haven’t spent as much time on betting exchanges, like Novig (promo code: JUICE) or ProphetX (promo code: JUICEREEL), but I know they are gaining popularity and are great options if you’re not in a state with great access (California, Florida, etc.).

Step Two: Betting Windows, Alerts and Line Shopping

Once you’ve determined your bankroll/unit size and created the requisite sportsbook accounts, it’s time to focus on execution.

I’ll write the rest of this section based on my experience tailing CalvinAndHobo, but will name adjustments I’d make for handicappers with different approaches.

When to Bet

Calvin typically makes 5-15 distinct plays daily, which varies based on the size of the NBA slate and opportunities that meet his bar.

For that volume of plays, I typically spend 30-60 minutes per day line shopping, moving money around and placing bets in order to tail as many of those plays as I can capture with good value (I usually can tail 90% of his bets).

Since the bulk of Calvin’s bets come in between 11pm and 5am Eastern time, I’ll do most of my tailing first-thing-in-the-morning. He’ll add a few bets in the evening slots before NBA games begin, and occasionally make an in-game bet, so I do my best to stay ready to add bets in this window.

Speed Matters

Lines/vig move in response to the actions of sharp bettors (and subscribers to their handicapping), so you’ll benefit from acting swiftly. This is especially true for bets that are close to game time, as less time exists for lines to normalize and you run the risk of missing a play altogether.

To maximize my speed, I have two levels of alerts turned on, and I recommend you do the same.

This should be the default setting, but make sure you have alerts enabled for (1) the Juice Reel app via your device, and (2) bets and comments from the handicapper you subscribe to in Juice Reel.

You can access this in the app by clicking the bell next to the handicapper’s name.

When the menu pops up, I recommend setting alerts for handicapper comments as well.

I further increase my speed by filtering Juice Reel’s line shopping feature to only include the sportsbooks I use.

To do so, first click settings on the home screen.

Then turn on game lines for the books you use, and no others.

Now when I shop for lines, I only see the books I have access to in the drop down menu. Best of all, if I click the line I want to act on, Juice Reel will populate the exact bet I want to make inside the sportsbook!

Here is an example:

The final step we’ll cover is deciding if you should tail a bet or not, based on the value available. Let’s dig in.

Step Three: Bet or Pass

Let’s say the handicapper you are tailing places all of their bets at -110 vig and has a 10% ROI.

To achieve a 10% ROI, the handicapper would need to do a bit better than a 57.5% win rate.

Here’s the breakdown of that calculation:

• The capper made 1000 bets and won 57.5% — 575 are wins and 425 are losses.

• Each winning bet yields a profit of one unit: $100.

• Each losing bet results in a loss one unit plus 10 points of vig: -$110.

• The total profit from wins is 575 * $100 = $57,500.

• The total loss from losing bets is 425 * -$110 = -$46,750.

• The net profit is therefore $57,500 - $46,750 = $10,750.

• The ROI is the net profit divided by the total amount risked ($110,000) resulting in a 9.77% ROI.

The first step to inform a “bet or pass” decision is to examine how ROI will erode as sportsbooks offer progressively worse prices.

For example, if I pay -120 vig instead of the -110 the handicapper achieved, I’m now risking $120,000 overall, losing $120 with each loss, and reducing my ROI to 5.42%.

Here’s a table of deteriorating ROI of a capper winning 57.5% of their -110 bets for reference:

This makes it clear that a winning bet at -110 vig loses all positive edge if the vig deteriorates to -140, but still turns a profit at -130 or better.

A more complex question arises when the line the handicapper bet moves away from you, rather than the vig.

For example, the original bet was LeBron over 21.5 points @-110, but the best you can bet is LeBron over 22.5 points @-110.

Analyzing the distribution of outcomes in different betting markets is beyond the scope of today’s piece, but I’ll include a rule of thumb in my decision tree below.

Here is how I approach tailing CalvinAndHobo, and how I recommend readers approach tailing any handicapper with a 7% ROI or better.

Decision tree for when to bet:

• Bet anything in which you are offered an equal or better line/vig combo as the handicapper achieved as fast as possible.

• Place bets in which you are offered the same line as the original bettor, and vig that is within 15 points with no hesitation. (Example: Original bet was under 5.5 assists @ -110, you bet under 5.5 assists @-120).

• Place bets in which the line is within 10% of the original line, and vig is equal or better. (Example: Original bet was Jokic over 11.5 rebounds @-130, you bet over 12.5 rebounds @-105).

• Avoid bets in which the vig has deteriorated more than 15 points, or the line has moved more than 10% (or both) - you missed the boat. Monitor them to see if they revert into your betting zone, though, and see if you can use promotional offers from the books to close the gap.

Phew, that was a lot of math!

Hopefully it serves many of you in maximizing value from handicappers you chose to tail. Now on to the fun stuff!

Bet of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-1 but won 0.45 units.

Rutgers covered easily after leading the entire second half and losing when Michigan hit a buzzer-beating 3 pointer.

Denver and Milwaukee did not score at the clip I expected, losing us one-half unit + vig.

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 14.55 units, at a positive 25% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Iowa +7.5 on BetMGM @-125 for 1 unit

I often have a bias toward playing home underdogs in the Big Ten against ranked opponents, and I like Iowa in particular tonight for one primary reason.

Michigan State's defense is vulnerable to perimeter shooting, allowing a 42% 3-point rate to opponents (ranking 15th in the Big Ten). This aligns perfectly with Iowa's elite spacing and shooting offense.

The Spartans' recent defensive success appears unsustainable, with opponents shooting an unusually low 23% from 3-point range on 26 attempts per game. I expect regression tonight, and think this spread does not fully account for Iowa’s potential to stay close or deliver an upset victory.

• Golden State -10.5 on BetRivers @-114 for 0.5 units

Since the All-Star break, Golden State has won 6 of 7 games and covered the spread just as often. Their only loss was in Philly where Jimmy Butler sat out and they rested other players down the stretch.

They're second only to the Cavaliers in net rating since acquiring Butler, and their league-leading assist ratio in that period validates Butler’s fit/chemistry. I’m comfortable laying double-digits.

Next week we’ll focus on college basketball and make some conference tournament bets.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!

Appendix:

The Kelly Criterion formula for optimal bet size is:

f = ROI / (1 + ROI)

However, to be more conservative and reduce volatility, I used 25% of the suggested Kelly bet.

I presumed a bettor would experience ~30% slippage from a capper and that produced the following table:

Bankroll Requirements for Different ROIs

As the ROI increases, the required bankroll decreases because you can afford to bet a larger percentage of your bankroll while maintaining the same level of risk.