How to Win Betting Over/Unders

Some of the bet types we discussed in prior newsletters have a clearly optimal strategy; for example: betting teasers that cross through key numbers, or maximizing the value you get from the “no sweat bet”.

Betting on whether the total points in a game will go “over” or “under” a certain number, however, is as much art as it is science.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the house and giving to the bettors, I’m excited to get into the nuance and tilt betting outcomes on game totals in your favor.

Today we’ll dive into strategies and trends that inform winning bets on totals, focused on football, but across all sports, and then make our bets of the week on this weekend’s games.

Let’s get after it.

Totals 101

Sports books will typically offer total points, or “over/under” bets, on all games at standard -110 pricing. Here’s an example from tonight’s NFL game:

In sports with more total points per game, like basketball and even football, books will move their lines in half point increments and typically keep the vig at -110.

In lower-scoring sports like soccer or hockey, sports books will often adjust the pricing rather than the total, because each half goal movement carries greater weight as a percentage of the total.

Here’s an example where the book moved one side to -120 and the other to +100 in an NHL matchup tonight.

When sportsbooks set the line for game totals, they layer in many inputs to triangulate a fair number. These include: each team’s pace (the average length of their possessions), efficiency on both offense and defense, scoring trends in recent games, and sometimes unique variables like weather and wind.

The biggest influencer of totals from season to season comes from rule changes or sweeping strategy changes.

NBA totals have ascended rapidly in the last decade as teams learned to appropriately value the 3-point shot over long 2-pointers as an optimal strategy. Look at the numbers:

NFL scoring peaked in the pandemic season of 2020 at 49.6 points per game, but has since regressed to average 43.6 last season. The most impactful recent rule change in professional football was the extra point being moved 13 yards further before the 2015 season — more on this later.

With that background, let’s get into strategy notes for betting totals.

Totals Betting Strategy

The are four important variables I consider when making a totals bet. Let’s go through them one by one.

1. Operate with a Bias Toward Unders — Betting “over” is more fun! No one wants to root for field goals instead of touchdowns, or ground outs instead of home runs. Under bettors must hate puppies, bacon and apple pie, right?

   It’s human nature to root for offensive success, so betting markets price totals slightly too high, especially in football. This creates an edge that is not big enough to be profitable on it’s own, but leads me to slant my total bets toward the under.

To validate this, here are O/U records by sport over the last 6 seasons, all above 50%:

Quick “unders” trend tip - for NFL games with spreads of less than a field goal, under bets won 62% of the time last season, and 56.5% of the time in the last five seasons. Further your bias in games with tight spreads.

2. Know the Key Numbers and Ranges in NFL Totals — We spoke about key numbers in NFL spread betting in the past, in particular the massive portion of games that are won by 3 (14%) or 7 (10%).

   NFL totals are much less clustered, as even the most common numbers land less than 4% of the time. Those most common totals are 41, 44, 47, 37 and 51. Because of the flat distribution, I’m less religious about playing key half points than I am in spread betting. That said I use this knowledge to orient toward over bets below key numbers (e.g. over a line of 40) and seek under bets right above them (e.g. betting under 52).

Here is the distribution of total points scored in recent NFL games:

3. Don’t Pay Much Vig for a Better Line — When betting NFL totals, never pay more than 9 points of vig to get on or off a key number, and never pay more than 5 points of vig to improve a non-key number.

   Since none of these totals happen remotely often, it’s not worth a price of -120 to move from “under 41” to “under 41.5”. Find the best line you can, but be comfortable leaving a half point line move on the table if it’s priced at more than a small premium.

4. Line Shop on Juice Reel — I’ve made this point before, and I’ll make it again: because sports books set tough lines on NFL totals, you must bet at the best price available if you want to win over time.

   You’ll find better vig, or an extra half point, almost every time, if you always shop amongst two or more sportsbooks.

This weekend’s Steelers vs Ravens game is offering under bettors bettor vig AND an extra half point by betting with Fanatics over FanDuel. Check it out:

All of the prior strategy tips I shared will be for naught if you can’t nail the basics (!!), so please take the time to bet at the best lines available.

Bet of the Week $$

Last week we made three bets. We won our Wong teaser on the Chargers + Cardinals easily, and we lost our primetime under by quite a bit when the Bengals and Ravens traded 2nd half scores with rapid fire.

We were also robbed of a +325 underdog money line win when the miracle Chiefs blocked a chip shot field goal, leaving me feeling like the Broncos radio announcers sounded. I feel like we were on the right side, but yeesh.

Even so, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 2.65 units, at a positive 19% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Washington +4 @-108 on DraftKings for 1 unit

• Under 49 in the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game on Fanatics @-110 for 1 unit

I think Washington continues to be underpriced vs established strong teams like the Eagles, and I like the Under in the game mentioned for reasons described in this newsletter!

Next week we’ll talk about a new form of betting that gained tremendous steam.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!

Appendix:

Math or resources