Ladder Betting

If you’re exposed to betting advice on X (Twitter) or Instagram, you’ve probably seen recommendations like this one:

Cody was suggesting a “ladder” bet on Amari Cooper last week.

While I disagree with this formulation of a ladder, for reasons I’ll explain below, I generally see these bets as good!

They’re a smart way to pursue more upside with low house edge, a good substitute for parlays, and a way to get more entertainment value from the same betting dollars.

Today we’ll go deep on the mechanics and strategy of ladder bets, and then make some (ladder) bets of the week for this weekend’s football games. Onward!

What is a Ladder Bet?

A ladder bet is an amalgamation of straight bets. To create a ladder, you make multiple bets on a game spread, total or prop — in the same direction with each bet — at odds that get progressively longer (less likely) as you go up the “rungs” of the ladder.

A popular way to structure such bets is to wager smaller amounts on the more extreme/unlikely outcomes.

Here is an example:

With a ladder, you’re creating a bet in which your risk is fixed at the total amount wagered, but your upside is variable. Winnings increase when the direction you bet gets more “right”.

In the example above, you’ve risked $185, and have four potential outcomes:

1. Bucs lose, or win by less than 4 — you lose all three bets.

   Outcome: -$185.

2. Bucs win by 4-7 — you win the first “rung” and lose the next two.

   Outcome: +$25

3. Bucs win by 7-11 — you win the first two “rungs” and lose the last.

   Outcome: +$150

4. Bucs win by 12+ — you win the entire ladder, all three bets.

   Outcome: +$237.50

Outside of greater financial upside, you’ll also have at least one of your “rungs” in play to win/lose more often than if you just bet at the standard point spread. If you’re like me, you’ll find the added drama more fun.

Ladder Betting Dos and Don’ts

I see a few big risks with ladder bets, and have some key guidelines to bet these well. Here are rules of thumb:

DO - Use Juice Reel to shop around and find the best lines for each rung in your ladder.

Betting every rung at the same book, without shopping, will cost you money and can shift this to a worse proposition. To find the lines, look here:

You’ll see each book’s vig at different point spreads in a visual like this:

DON’T - Bet on player prop lines that are only offered in one direction.

You’ll frequently be offered a chance to bet “Over” some number of yards or touchdowns for a given player with no ability to bet “Under”.

That was my problem with Cody’s recommendation up top. When books only offer you one side of a bet, their edge becomes opaque and is typically too high.

For example, avoid a ladder on Derrick Henry touchdowns that looks like this:

• 1+ Touchdowns, -205

• 2+ Touchdowns, +205

• 3+ Touchdowns, +700

The house doesn’t offer you bets on fewer than 1/2/3 touchdowns.

Because of that, the house edge on these overs is opaque, and likely massive. This is not worth it.

DO - Keep your total bet size the same as it’d have been in a straight bet.

It’s easy to let bet sizing creep up when you’re funding multiple rungs on a ladder. To avoid accidental bet creep, make your bottom, and largest, rung half of your typical bet size or less.

DON’T - Set the bottom rung of your ladder so low that you’re betting a LOT to win a LITTLE.

Unless you’re already an expert bettor, I’d recommend never including a bigger favorite than -200 in your ladder, and generally sticking to a -110 base bet as the bottom “rung”.

DO - Look for games, teams or players that are volatile.

If a team consistently wins by 3-7 points, or a player routinely gets between 45 and 60 yards rushing, you’re unlikely to see the extreme outcomes that will make this type of bet pay off.

You want teams that run hot/cold, or players that pass for 150 yards one game and 400 the next (Kirk Cousins?!).

DON’T - Choose markets that have a high house edge at different rungs of your ladder.

The specific math from my diligence is in the appendix, and you can get a refresher on house edge here, but in general:

Point spread house edge is Good, between 2% and 4%. Bet these.

Totals house edge is Good, between 2.5% and 5%. Bet these.

Player props for yardage house edge is Decent, between 4.5% and 7%. Consider these.

Player props for touchdowns house edge is Bad, between 8% and 20%. Avoid these.

Bet of the Week $$

Last week I took four big underdogs, won on Arkansas at +410, and came excruciatingly close on Cal who somehow blew a 25 point lead to Miami. Overall the four bets won 1.1 units — I hope you joined me!

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are now ahead 3.1 units, at a positive 37% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

This week let’s build two ladders, with three rungs each, around the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants. Here are the picks (each will total two units):

Ladder 1

• Lions -3 @ -110 on Fanatics: 1.1 units

• Lions -6 @ +147 on DraftKings: 0.6 units

• Lions -9.5 @ +240 on FanDuel: 0.3 units

Ladder 2

• Giants +3.5 @ -105 on Caesars: 1.05 units

• Giants -1 @ +165 on BetMGM: 0.7 units

• Giants -3.5 @ +255 on FanDuel: 0.25 units

Next week, we’ll cover a key topic related to bet selection and not ending up in a hole of losses too big to dig out of.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!

Appendix:

Here are samples of the vig and house edge in 3 markets for tonight’s 49ers vs Seahawks game. I shopped all NY sportsbooks:

Point Spread

Total

George Kittle Receiving Yards