Ladder Betting 2025

One of the most popular topics I’ve written about, and a bet type I place every week, come together in the form of “ladder betting”.

In contrast to multi-leg parlays or heavily-taxed SGPs (same game parlays), ladders are a smart way to pursue more upside with low house edge and get more entertainment value from the same betting dollars.

Today we’ll go deep on the mechanics and strategy of ladder bets, and then make some (ladder) bets of the week for this weekend’s NFL.

Let’s get after it.

What is a Ladder Bet?

A ladder bet is an amalgamation of straight bets.

To create a ladder, you make multiple bets on a game spread, total or prop — in the same direction with each bet — at odds that get progressively longer (less likely) as you go up the “rungs” of the ladder.

A popular way to structure such bets is to wager smaller amounts on the more extreme/unlikely outcomes.

Here is an example:

With a ladder, you’re creating a bet in which your risk is fixed at the total amount wagered, but your upside is variable. Winnings increase when the direction you bet gets more “right”.

In the example above, you’ve risked $185, and have four potential outcomes:

1. Eagles lose, or win by less than 8 — you lose all three bets.

   Outcome: -$185.

2. Eagles win by 8-11 — you win the first “rung” and lose the next two.

   Outcome: +$25

3. Eagles win by 12-16 — you win the first two “rungs” and lose the last.

   Outcome: +$150

4. Eagles win by 17+ — you win the entire ladder, all three bets.

   Outcome: +$237.50

Outside of greater financial upside, you’ll also have at least one of your “rungs” in play to win/lose more often than if you just bet at the standard point spread.

If you’re a red-blooded gambler like me, you’ll find the added drama more fun.

Ladder Betting Dos and Don’ts

I see a few big risks with ladder bets, and have some key guidelines to bet these well. Here are rules of thumb:

DO - Use Juice Reel to shop around and find the best lines for each rung in your ladder.

Betting every rung at the same book, without shopping, will cost you money and can shift this into an ugly proposition.

To find the lines, look here:

You’ll see each book’s vig at different point spreads in a visual like this:

DON’T - Bet on player prop lines that are only offered in one direction.

You’ll frequently be offered a chance to bet “Over” some number of yards or touchdowns for a given player with no ability to bet “Under”.

When books only offer you one side of a bet, their edge becomes opaque and is typically too high.

For example, avoid a ladder on Derrick Henry touchdowns that looks like this:

• 1+ Touchdowns, -205

• 2+ Touchdowns, +205

• 3+ Touchdowns, +700

The house doesn’t offer you bets on fewer than 1/2/3 touchdowns.

Because of that, the house edge on these overs is opaque, and likely massive. This is not worth it.

(One caveat on this below!)

DO - Keep your total bet size the same as it’d have been in a straight bet.

It’s easy to let bet sizing creep up when you’re funding multiple rungs on a ladder. To avoid accidental bet creep, make your bottom, and largest, rung half of your typical bet size or less.

DON’T - Set the bottom rung of your ladder so low that you’re betting a LOT to win a LITTLE.

Unless you’re already an expert bettor, I’d recommend never including a bigger favorite than -200 in your ladder, and generally sticking to a -110 base bet as the bottom “rung”.

DO - Look for games, teams or players that are in unique, volatile situations.

If a team consistently wins by 3-7 points, or a player routinely gets between 45 and 60 yards rushing, and nothing special is happening the game you’re betting - it’s unlikely to achieve extreme outcomes that will make this type of bet pay off.

You want teams that run hot/cold, or players that have less of a track record or a new role, allowing for “fatter tails”, or a wider range of outcomes.

DON’T - Choose markets that have a high house edge at different rungs of your ladder.

If you only have access to retail books:

Point spread house edge is Good, between 2% and 4%. Bet these.

Totals house edge is Good, between 2.5% and 5%. Bet these.

Player props for yardage house edge is Decent, between 4.5% and 7%. Consider these.

Player props for touchdowns house edge is Bad, between 8% and 20%. Avoid these.

DO - Make ladder bets on exchanges like NoVig or prediction markets like Kalshi!

Betting on these platforms allows for betting the “yes” or the “no” on every market.

This removes the risk of facing extreme vig on one-sided markets like “scores 2+ touchdowns”, and will create a lot more return in your ladder bets.

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week our handicapping was right on - we went winner—winner, both on Thursday night.

The first half’s closing score was a 49ers field goal, as predicted, and Mac Jones blew through his pass attempts line of 32.5, finishing with 49 attempts.

We won 1.5 full units.

Inclusive of those wins, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 20.43 units (an all-time high), with a positive 20% ROI.

A $100 bettor would be ahead $2,043! We’ll update this every week.

This week let’s bet a three rung ladder on the early Sunday game being played in London:

Ladder:

• Jets +7.5 @ -110 on BetMGM for 1.1 units

• Jets +4 @ +160 on Fanatics for 0.6 units

• Jets ML @ +320 on FanDuel for 0.3 units

I like this ladder for the following reasons:

• Circadian edge: Kick at 9:30 a.m. ET (2:30 p.m. local) is 7:30 a.m. Denver time, a tougher body-clock ask for the Mountain-time Broncos than the East-coast Jets.

• Denver OL injury: Starting LG Ben Powers hit IR this week (biceps). A dinged interior can flatten the run game and raise turnover/negative-play variance which is great for tail outcomes.

• Winless Road Dogs Trend: Teams that have yet to win and play on the road as underdogs are more than 59% against the spread over a nearly 400-game sample.

Let’s hit some rungs!

Next week we’ll keep the NFL focus and dig into the bad advice coming from a public “betting expert” on Twitter.

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