Line Shopping in 2025

I was catching up with friends from Miami recently and I learned two things that surprised me:

1. All of our mutual friends now bets on sports.

2. Of those living in Florida, none of them are line shopping.

Because Florida only has one legal sportsbook, Hard Rock, that’s the only platform they use.

They’re not familiar with betting exchanges or prediction markets, and they’re placing bets without ever asking a basic question: “Can I get a better number somewhere else?”

If that sounds familiar, don’t worry — today’s newsletter will fix it.

We’ll start with the fundamentals in Line Shopping 101 — how to compare odds across books and recognize where you’re losing value.

Then we’ll move into 201-level strategy — how to choose between two similar but not equal bets, and how exchanges and prediction markets can offer edges traditional sportsbooks don’t.

Finally, as always, we’ll put this into action with our NBA bets of the week.

Let’s get after it.

Line Shopping 101

If you’re reading this newsletter, you probably know intuitively that you’ll win more with a better line — but a small edge is more powerful than you think.

In Nate Silver’s book, “On the Edge”, he quantifies the value of improving your bets against the line in detail.

For example, a 2023 NBA bettor who wagered $100 on every game and got just one extra point on the closing line would have made over $7,000! Small edges add up.

Let’s get into the basic concepts now.

There are two ways one line can be more desirable than another for a bettor:

1. The “vig” (short for vigorish) is lower

That means a smaller bet could be made and still win you the same amount of money. Take a look at this example for tonight’s Thunder vs. Grizzlies playoff game:

Betting $115 on the Thunder -9.5 at BetMGM would win you $100, but you only need to bet $110 on DraftKings to win the same $100.

It’s an easy choice to go with the book offering a lower investment for the same reward.

2. The point spread is more favorable

That means the favorite doesn’t need to win by as much, or the underdog has more room to cover. Here’s another look at the same game:

If the Thunder win by exactly 10 points, you’d win at DraftKings but only push (get your money back) at FanDuel.

Those are two most basic scenarios to capitalize on by line shopping.

How to Shop

So now you understand what line shopping is — and why it matters. Here’s how to do it well.

Start by giving yourself more than one option.

If you're only using a single sportsbook, you're stuck with whatever price they offer — good, bad, or in between. Like my Floridian friends, many people default to a single app legal in their state, or stick with the first book they download. That’s an expensive mistake.

Going from one sportsbook to two is the biggest leap you can make in terms of improving your betting efficiency.

I comparison shop between at least eight books, but more and more of my betting dollars are landing on exchanges and prediction markets like NoVig, and Kalshi.

Juice Reel now facilitates line shopping from exchanges as well as traditional sportsbooks.

Here’s the visual for tonight’s Memphis vs OKC game:

Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s go deeper on how to find edge in pricing.

Line Shopping 201: Ranking Non-obvious Options

Once you’re comparing lines across multiple books, you’ll quickly run into a common question:

Let’s say you like the Memphis Grizzlies tonight and you’re deciding between:

At FanDuel, you get the extra half-point of cushion — but you’re paying 10 cents more in vig. ESPNBet offers a worse line, but it’s cheaper to bet.

So which is better?

Here’s how to think about it:

Let’s say you bet on the underdog 100 times, and your side covers in 50 of those games — a clean 50% win rate.

You're deciding between:

• +10 at -110

• +9.5 at +100

If there were no difference in the spread — meaning the games never land on exactly 10 — here’s what your profit/loss would look like just based on the price:

• +9.5 at +100 → Win 50 bets, lose 50 bets
  Net Profit = $5,000 - $5,000 = $0

• +10 at -110 → Win 50 bets, lose 50 bets
  Net Profit = $5,000 - $5,500 = -$500

That’s a $500 swing purely due to the higher vig at -110.

To justify paying that extra juice, you’d need to turn at least 5 of those losses into pushes by having the game land on exactly 10 — saving $100 each time.

✅ Conclusion: You need the Thunder to win by exactly 10 at least 5% of the time to make the -110 line worth it.

That’s your breakeven.

Betting Exchanges: A New Alternative

Here’s one more edge that most casual bettors don’t use: betting exchanges like ProphetX, NoVig, or Kalshi.

Exchanges let you set your own price and sometimes get matched by another bettor instead of taking whatever the house gives you. You don’t always get filled immediately, but when the market is moving or interest is high, you can frequently find better value than any book will offer.

For example, I’ve worked orders on Kalshi just outside the best moneylines on sportsbooks and had them fill later at a better price by being willing to wait.

Kalshi, available in all 50 states, is especially powerful for folks in states like Florida looking for another option on popular markets like NBA/NHL/MLB moneylines.

Bets of the Week $$

Last week we clocked an easy 2-0 (!!) and won 2 full units.

Memphis blasted Dallas by 14 points, covering the 6 point spread in the play-in game with ease.

Golden State built on Steve Kerr’s excellence in playoff Game 1’s by winning outright in Houston and stealing homecourt advantage.

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 14.9 units, at a positive 19.5% ROI. A $100 bettor would be ahead $1490.

If you’ve been using the “post-game 1 zig zag method”, you’ve made quite a bit of additional money this season as well.

Let’s keep rolling.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• First Half Bet - Orlando +2.5 @-130 on FanDuel for 0.5 units

• First Half Bet - Milwaukee -3.5 @-120 on BetRivers for 0.5 units

I expect both of these Eastern Conference squads to overperform early at home after finding themselves in desperation mode on Friday, trailing 0-2 in their series. Since 2005, home teams down 0–2 are 93–52–2 (64.1%) against the spread in the first half of Game 3.

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