NFL Futures Midseason Check-in

Right before the season began, I shared my portfolio of NFL futures bets, along with the edge and rationale behind each.

Many of you joined me in making some or all of these wagers.

Today, I’ll do a midseason check-in on how the portfolio is doing - what’s working, what’s wobbling, and why.

I’ll explain my methodology for “marking these bets to market” and share a couple of new betting angles I’m likely to add.

As always, we’ll scan the expanding sports landscape and close with this week’s Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

Overview and Methodology

I placed 13 distinct NFL futures bets in September for 16.25 units total.

The bets were broken out into four categories: Division Winners, Season Win Totals, Player Props, and Betting the No.

To assess the current value of each bet, I used either today’s betting lines or linear statistical pacing for player props to assign each a probability of winning.

I can convert win probability to money lines, and vice versa, using this method.

Finally, I revalued each bet based on up to date information and shared the new moneyline as well as the new unit value below.

The good news is that the portfolio is up 2.6 units for an unrealized 16% ROI (!!).

I’ll review the portfolio in three categories - (1) value-growers, (2) value-neutral, and (3) bets dragging us down. I’ll add commentary in each bucket.

Bets that Have Increased in Value

Seven of our thirteen bets have been clear winners so far.

Our read that the Eagles would regress to the mean in play-calling, and become more pass-heavy, has looked very prescient of late.

Saquon is averaging 53 rushing yards per game thus far, and would need 103 yards per game for us to lose our bet.

Jalen Hurts, by contrast, is averaging 214 passing yards per game this season, and has gone over 280 in each of the last three weeks. He’ll clear 3175 by averaging 168 per game the rest of the way — easy peasy.

We correctly predicted Drake Maye’s year two breakout leading the Pats to a 5-2 record, and the Raiders’ challenging travel schedule leaving them 2-5.

Michael Penix will go over 4,000 passing yards by maintaining his current 235-yard-per-game pace, but we’ll need him to be healthy enough to play.

Our Bengals bet benefited from Joe Burrow’s disappointing injury luck, but that’s part of the game.

Now let’s look at the breakeven bets in our portfolio.

Bets that Are Flat in Value

We correctly predicted San Francisco showing value before the season, as they’re sitting at 5-2 despite some key injuries. Our division bet is flat, though, because the Seahawks and Rams are both 5-2 making the NFC West extra competitive.

The Chargers remain unlikely to win the AFC, but are squarely in the playoff hunt, so our short-odds bet hasn’t accrued much value.

Let’s look at the remaining four bets, which are down but not out.

Bets that have Declined in Value

The Cowboys’ offense has been good enough to offset their sieve defense, so their season win total exceeding 7.5 remains a coin flip.

Despite a slow start, the Chiefs are rounding into form and are always a threat to reach the big game.

The Bears sit at 4-2, as good as we’d hoped when predicting year 2 growth from Caleb Williams. Sadly the NFC North remains wildly competitive, as they trail both Detroit and Green Bay in the standings.

Our biggest negative came in Baltimore, with the Ravens sitting 3 games out of first place. In September I wrote:

“Lamar Jackson has gone 70-24 as a starter in his career, so this Ravens bet is a wager on his health. If he plays 15+ games, I think they win the AFC North with ease”.

Needless to say, Lamar will play a lot less than 15 games this year (sigh), but given the weakness of the AFC North, we’re still 38% likely to win this bet.

New Futures Angles

Here are two interesting mid-season angles I’m exploring:

• Colts: Contender or Pretender - Despite sitting at 6-1 with the best point differential in the league, the Colts are rated 7th most-likely to win the Super Bowl and are widely available at 12-1. I’m looking to build a position on Kalshi at a slightly better price (14-1), but books have been slow to update their priors on this so-far-dominant team.

• Baker Mayfield MVP -  If you only watched the Bucs last game, you’re probably horrified by this idea, as Baker played his worst game of the year and lost top receiver Mike Evans for most of the season. Here’s the thing: the Bucs still have a ton of receiving talent, led by rookie Emeka Egbuka, and Baker is top 5 in pass yards, TDs, and passer rating while leading a 5-2 team. I like the value on him at 10-1 or better, and have orders on exchange books to get some exposure.

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-1.

We won easily on Thursday with the Bengals strong showing, before Atlanta’s disappointing Sunday night effort cost us a small amount of vig, losing 0.12 units.

Since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 21.98 units, with a positive 20% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Oronde Gadsden over 41.5 yards @ -115 on Hard Rock for 1 unit (Tonight)

My app subscribers got this two days ago at 39.5 yards, but I think books have been slow to adapt to Gadsden’s increasing volume the past few weeks and still see value at the current line. I also can’t imagine a better motivator than getting benched by your own father.

• Ravens Money Line @ -233 on Kalshi for 1 unit (Sunday)

This is a great bet if Lamar Jackson plays, but even if he doesn’t, I believe the Bears are overvalued given their negative point differential and unsustainable luck in the turnover department (currently #1 in the league). I price this at a blended 76% when I risk-adjust for injury, so betting it at 71% is attractive value.

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