NFL Futures Portfolio Accounting

Sept. 4 (preseason), I shared my 2025 NFL Futures bets and put down 13 tickets across four buckets:

• Division Winners

• Team Win Totals

• Player Props

• Betting the “No” (requires an exchange like Kalshi)

I know a number of readers joined me on some (or even all) of these bets.

Now that we’ve got the full regular season in the books, I’ll review our results today and see what we can learn and take away for next season.

As always, we’ll close with our Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

Overall Results

We placed 13 bets staked for 16.25u in total. Our largest bets were for 2u and our smallest was for 0.25u.

Here’s where we stand:

• 7 wins / 4 losses / 1 push

• 1 still live (Chargers “No” to win the AFC)

Our realized P&L on settled bets: +4.08u for a 28.6% ROI.

I’ll take this all day!

A ~30% return plus the entertainment value of high-leverage games all season is the whole point of a futures portfolio.

The live Chargers “No” bet is basically marked around cost right now, so I’m omitting the stake and result from this calculus.

Before we dig in, here’s a table of the bets from most profitable to most unprofitable:

Now let’s review and grade the bets by category, considering the preseason thesis.

Category 1: Division Winners

Original angle: “Worst to First / First to First.”

✅ Patriots win AFC East (+660, 0.25u) — A+

I chose the Patriots as a “worst to first” division winner based on a combination of attractive odds and a potential tail outcome of 2nd-year QB maturation for Drake Maye.

This is exactly what happened! Maye played like an MVP (he’s a lock to be top 2 in the voting) and New England went 14–3 and won the division.

✅ Bears win NFC North (+600, 0.5u) — A+

I had the same thesis for Chicago as New England: 2nd-year pedigreed QB making a leap. Caleb Williams improved across the board and Chicago took the North at 11–6  for the biggest absolute win in the portfolio.

❌ 49ers win NFC West (+175, 1u) — B- (fine bet, lost)

This one was primarily a price bet: Caesars had an outlier number and that the West was “a great market to attack,” because of low hold. Also predicted positive health regression for a strong 49ers core.

While we lost, the 49ers finished 12–5 and played Week 18 with the division on the line. Having a coin flip in Week 18 to win at plus money” is not a bad outcome, so I’ll grade this decently well.

❌ Ravens win AFC North (-144, 2u) — C (solid process, poor result)

I framed this as a health bet on Lamar: if he played 15+ games, I thought Baltimore won the North “with ease.”

This is not what happened. Lamar played in 13 games and didn’t finish all of them. The Ravens still got to Week 18 with a clinch scenario.

When you lay -144, you can still lose this bet a meaningful chunk of the time without a big misread. Sometimes the loss is a 44-yarder drifting wide right.

Category 2: Season Win Totals

Original angle: “Rest advantage or personnel change.”

✅ Raiders Under 7.5 (-136, 1.5u) — A

This was a rest-disparity fade (Warren Sharp schedule angle) and a structural bet against the Raiders. They finished 3–14. Never a sweat, hat tip to Warren Sharp on the schedule angle.

➖ Cowboys Under 7.5 (-120, 1u) — B- (push)

Thesis was that Micah Parsons’ departure wasn’t fully captured in the line, and I cited research on how massive his on/off impact was. It’s unclear if that analysis had merit, as Dallas basically played to expectation.

Dallas finished 7–9–1 and this bet was graded a “push” (tie).

For season win totals, a tie counts as half a win.
So 7–9–1 = 7.5 wins (7 + 0.5). That lands exactly on 7.5, so the bet grades a push (stake back).

Category 3: Player Props

Original angle: “Run/pass regression… and a tail bet on small data.”

The core thesis: Philly’s 2024 run rate (58.1%) looked like a historical outlier. If they passed even a little more, Hurts overs + Saquon unders both benefit.

That’s what happened. Run rate fell to 49% in 2025, lower than 7 other teams, giving us a real tailwind.

✅ Saquon Under 1400 rush (-120, 1.5u) — A

Cashed with room: Barkley finished at 1,140.

✅ Hurts Over 3175 pass (-114, 1u) — A-

Hurts finished at 3,224 despite sitting out Week 18.

❌ Hurts Over 3500 pass (+150, 1u) — B-

Same underlying idea, but this fell victim to the Eagles resting starters in Week 18, a foreseeable possibility.

❌ Penix Over 4000 pass (+250, 0.5u) — C-

This one was explicitly a “tail bet on small data” — I cited his late-season flash metrics and some situational splits.

Penix averaged 220 yards/game, a 17-game pace of 3,744 passing yards. He finished at 1,982 due to a season-ending injury. This isn’t a terrible bet at +250, but I can’t claim a win on my analysis here.

Category 4: Betting the “No”

Original angle: “Play bookie on Kalshi” and create a synthetic price by betting multiple teams not to win the AFC.

✅ Bengals “No win AFC” (-1011, 2u) — B

Bengals finished 6–11 and were never a threat.

✅ Chiefs “No win AFC” (-400, 2u) — B+

Chiefs finished 6–11 due to dramatically different results in one-score games vs ‘24.

🔄 Chargers “No win AFC” (-1329, 2u) — C+ (live)

This is still running. Chargers are 13-1 to win the AFC right now, which implies ~7% risk.
The ticket is basically where it started: likely to cash, but not profitable.

What I’m taking into next season

1. Indirect variables play into the success of a season-long bet - A bet on Jalen Hurts to throw for many yards is also: a) a bet on his health, b) a bet on the Eagles offensive strategy and c) a bet that the Eagles will have something to play for in Week 18.

I’ll consider these collateral factors on top of my main thesis.

2. Prediction markets make betting “No” a great strategy - It looks like I’ll sweep this year’s “No” category, and I feel great about the pricing I was able to achieve on Kalshi.

I’ll do a lot more of this “market-making” style betting on player lines next year!

3. You can lose a good bet or back into a lucky win - I have higher rated losing bets than some of the bets I won this year.

I’ll grow the size of my portfolio knowing a larger sample will help me realize an edge.

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-1, disappointingly losing one half-unit.

Our Titans bet fizzled hard after Cam Ward left with an injury following a fantastic first drive TD run. Tough luck.

Fortunately, the “play-from-behind” game script supported our “under” bet on Tony Pollard, and he never came near the 69 yard total we faded.

With that outcome, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 21.85 units, with a positive 15.5% ROI. We’ll update this every week.

I am making the following bet this week:

• Miami Hurricanes -3 @ -110 on theScore Bet for 0.5 units (Tonight)

Miami allowed 13.07 points per game this year (4th nationally) and in the CFP they held Texas A&M + Ohio State to 17 total points. Trinidad Chambliss played the game of a lifetime against Georgia, and he’ll give the Rebels a fighting chance, but I think Miami covers this line more than enough to pay for this vig.

• Jaguars +1.5 @ -120 on FanDuel for 1 unit (Sunday)

The Jaguars throw downfield twice as often as they did prior to Jacobi Myers arrival. This has been the biggest catalyst in their recent offensive success and I don’t believe it’s being priced in to this spread. I also do not believe Josh Allen is at full health, hence the full unit bet.

Next week we’ll do a broader 2025 betting review.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!