Pre-Big Game Check In

We are in the one-week break before the Super Bowl, so I’m going to give myself a bit of a break as well.

Today’s newsletter will just be:

(1) links to other content - both informative and entertaining/novel, and

(2) Bet of the Week.

Enjoy, and let’s get after it.

Content:

To prep for betting the big game:

• My article on betting super bowl props from last year - helpful betting trends and opportunities agnostic of the teams.

• ESPN “experts” betting suggestions - I offer this not because I’m confident these are good bets, but because their reasoning is good context and stimuli.

Betting novelty related to the big game:

• NFL won’t allow prediction market ads, but they will allow sportsbooks - mmmmkay.

• Mattress Mack bringing heat on the Patriots - this guy does arbitrage betting on a whole different level.

• Some guy predicted Pats over Seahawks preseason at 3100:1 (!!) - what a legend, enjoy the comment section.

Now let’s get to this week’s bet!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week our winning ways continued!

We had the Broncos +5.5, which ended up feeling like a large margin of safety in a game where points were very hard to come by, winning us 1 unit.

Unfortunately our long-shot bet on Jarrett Stidham passing was undone by second half weather (he was on track at halftime!) costing us 0.5 units.

So we won 0.5 units in total last week, and since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 22.65 units, with a positive 16% ROI.

A $100 bettor would be ahead $2,265 following these bets!

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week:

• Alexander Zverev +6.5 games @ -150 on BetRivers for 0.5 units (Tonight)

First, I’ll explain this bet, then give a quick rationale:

You’re betting that Zverev will either (a) win this match outright or (b) lose by a margin where he stays within 6 games of Alcaraz (or fewer).

For example:

• Even a 0–3 loss can cover if it’s tight: 6-7, 4-6, 4-6 = -5 ✅

• Where we lose: one ugly set is hard to overcome: 2-6, 4-6, 6-7 = -7 ❌

Rationale:

This matchup has been tight for years. They’ve played 12 times and it’s 6–6. On top of that, Zverev’s serve gives him a high “keep-sets-close” floor.

In the QF he hit 24 aces with just 1 double fault, and the match featured two tiebreak sets.

Next week we’ll go deep on the big game.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!