Summer Soccer Bets

The Stanley Cup Finals have finished, with Lord Stanley’s mug staying in Florida for another year.

The NBA Finals wrap up tonight — or this weekend, depending on Tyrese Halliburton’s health.

Looking ahead to summer, we need something to bet on!

Enter the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, currently airing at all hours on U.S. time zones (You need the DAZN app to watch).

This seemed like the perfect time to explain the nuances of soccer betting: what the most common bet types are, how to decode their specifics (especially if you’ve mostly bet U.S. sports), and a go-to strategy I’ve used to seek edge in round-robin tournaments.

As always, we’ll close with our bets of the week, including a last NBA bet of the season (!!).

Let’s get after it.

Soccer Betting 101 — Common Markets

Before you click Bet on soccer, you need to know what you’re wagering — and how it’s graded.

Here are details on some of the most common markets:

• Three-Way Moneyline (1 × 2)
  Pick Home win / Draw / Away win in 90 minutes + stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts don’t count, as games that are tied after 90 minutes will pay out the “Draw” bettors. Books build in vig to the lines they set across three outcomes, more on assessing this later.

• Draw-No-Bet (DNB)
  This bet removes the draw: pick a side, and if the match ends even your stake is refunded. This still grades on 90 minutes + stoppage time unless explicitly labeled otherwise.

• Two-Way “To Advance” Bet
  Like DNB but includes extra time & penalties so that one side will always win and one will lose. This is only offered in knockout rounds where a team is definitely going home. If you back a team “To Advance,” you win even on a PK shootout.

• Asian Handicap (¼-Goals)
  The most unusual looking soccer bets are “goal lines” spread in 0.25 increments that split your stake across two adjacent lines. For example, betting a team +1.25 will wager half of your stake on a goal line of +1.0 (you’ll win on a draw and push if they lose by a goal difference of one) and half on +1.5 (you’ll win on a loss by one goal). These are graded on 90 minutes + stoppage unless otherwise flagged.

Here’s a summary table with examples from this afternoon’s game in Seattle:

Quick Summary Table

Calculating House Edge on Three-Way Bets

One way Americans can level up in soccer wagering is by betting into the lowest house edge.

Let’s look at a hypothetical three-way moneyline to see how it works:

1. Convert odds to implied probabilities
   Suppose the prices are +400 (underdog), +300 (draw), and –160 (favorite), which translate to 20.0 percent, 25.0 percent, and 61.5 percent—adding up to 106.5 percent.

2. Find the over-round
   Subtract 100 percent from that total: 106.5% – 100% = 6.5%.

3. Calculate house edge
   Divide the over-round by the total implied probability: 6.5 ÷ 106.5 ≈ 6.1 percent.

That 6.1 percent is the true cost per $100 you bet. You can compare a two-way DNB bet to decide where you’ll have the lowest vig to overcome.

For more on this topic, my initial primer on house edge can be found here.

Exploiting Round-Robin-Created Incentives

Many soccer tournaments kick off with round-robin groups — each team faces its group opponents once, earning 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw in each 90′ match.

After three match-days, sides are ranked by:

• Points: total points earned

• Goal Differential: goals scored – goals conceded

• Goals Scored: total goals in all group matches

In the Club World Cup, 32 teams are split into eight groups of four, and the top two from each advance.

That makes Match-Day 3 a prime hunting ground for edges. Here are some scenarios I have found profitable to explore:

• Safe-Draw Matches
  If a draw guarantees qualification for both teams, managers often lock it down —wingbacks tuck in, midfielders sit deep, and risk-taking vanishes late. When you spot that tactical shift, look for opportunities to bet under a total number of goals or to pay up for a draw live in-game, as the odds often lag that conservative change.

• Large Goal-Differential Hunts
  Sometimes a squad needs a +2 or +3 swing to overtake a rival and make the knockout round. In those cases, expect more open play, and consider a wider range of outcomes — books may underprice heavier wins (e.g. 3–0) because a 1–0 or 2–0 carries the same points impact but doesn’t get the team what they need.

• Clinched-Through Caution & Complacency
  Teams that have already secured advancement often sit key players to avoid yellow-card suspensions or protect fatigue for knockout rounds. You’ll need to gauge whether they’ll be complacent—treating the final group match as a tune-up — or still eager to show top form ahead of the next stage.

By tracking group standings, scanning lineups 45 minutes pre-kick, and considering coach habits in past situations, you can anticipate where the market hasn’t adjusted and take some smart angles.

Enjoy!

Bet of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-0 and won 1 full unit.

The Thunder turned the tables on the Pacers by mounting a late 4th quarter comeback in Game 4 after trailing much of the second half. They narrowly covered the spread, and we’ll take it!

With this win, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 14.4 units, at a positive 18% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week:

• Pacers +6.5 @-110 on NoVig for 1 unit

This is a Juice Reel SharpMush influenced bet, as I see more money on the Thunder and smarter money on Indiana for both point spread and money line bets.

I also believe Tyrese Haliburton will play more than a decoy role (he looks solid at shootaround) and we are thus getting the Pacers at a discount with 6.5 points.

Next week we’ll continue exploring oasis betting opportunities that show up during the desert of summer.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!