Super Bowl Betting Extravaganza

Last week, we covered some general axioms of betting the Super Bowl most skillfully. These included (1) accounting for the large influx of public money and (2) investing extra time in line shopping to find negative house edge bets or attractive middles.

With the big game mere days away, it’s time for the Robin Hood of Sports Betting’s guide to betting Super Bowl LIX!

Today we’ll spend a little time on additional betting tactics specific to the big game, but we’ll primarily go deep on a large number of Super Bowl bets of the week.

Let’s get after it.

Tactical Betting Recommendations

Before getting into specific bets I’ll be making, I wanted to reinforce a couple more value-creating strategies (and one fun tidbit) for the big game. Here’s the list:

1. Bet “Overs” early and “Unders” late - Once betting lines for the Super Bowl are released, sharp bettors typically swarm to place immediate “over” bets on any props they like. Public money, which skews towards “overs” across the board, will trickle in over time, however, and peak on game day. Because of this, there is value in waiting until the last minute to make “under” bets in the interest of getting more value!

2. Look for the same bet under a different name - Since so many props exist for the Super Bowl that aren’t offered every week, sportsbooks may offer the same bets using different language. Here’s an example:

3. You can bet on everything, not just the game - It’s beyond the current scope of this newsletter to cover non-sporting bets, but if you want action on every second of the game, including timeouts and halftime, you can find it. For example, prediction market Kalshi is offering wagers on potential advertisers, and the halftime setlist. Check it out:

Now let’s get into specific bets I’ll be making for the game, broken into two buckets.

Even Money(ish) Bets

1. Chiefs Sacks Over (mini ladder) - Jalen Hurts has a tendency to take sacks, particularly in recent seasons. He averaged one sack every 9.5 dropbacks (pass attempts) this year, and he had the highest average time to throw in the NFL at 3.21 seconds. I expect him to have an above average number of dropbacks in this game because of the tight point spread, so I’ll bet Chiefs over 2.5 and over 3.5 sacks at the best lines I can find (specifics below).

2. Chiefs Field Goals Over - Mahomes has struggled in the red zone historically vs Vic Fangio defenses, and the Chiefs have rarely gone for first downs on distances greater than 4th and 1 (only twice this year). Butker is an excellent kicker, and the Chiefs have made two or more field goals in six of their last either playoff games. I’ll bet Chiefs over 1.5 field goals at lines better than -150.

3. Mahomes Rushing Yards Under - Patrick Mahomes rushes more frequently in the playoffs than he does in the regular season. Here’s a 2024 comparison:

Long Shot Bets

4. Jalen Hurts to Win MVP - The betting line indicates the Eagles are a little bit worse than a coin flip to win the Super Bowl, but their quarterback’s MVP odds imply a percentage of 22% likelihood for him to win. He’s not even the favorite on his own team (Saquon Barkley is), despite quarterbacks winning 15 of the last 20 Super Bowl MVP awards, and no running back winning since 1998! I see value here (!!), and am betting Hurts to win MVP at +350 or better.

5. Juju Smith-Schuster 30+ yards - In contrast to DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster does not seem to be losing much of his snap share to the return of Hollywood Brown. He’s shown the ability to break a long reception, with two catches of 29+ yards last week, so I’ll bet him to go over 30+ yards at +210 or better.

    

6. AJ Brown First to 50 Rush/Rec Yards - Brown excels against man coverage, which the Chiefs employ frequently. He leads all qualified pass-catchers in yards per route run (4.04) and ranks second in target rate (37%) against man coverage this season. Due to Saquon’s dominance, he is the heavy favorite to win this prop. The line of +600 I found is long enough that I see value in betting AJ to start quickly, and I’d bet this to +500 better.

Bet of the Week $$

Last week we went 0-1, with our Super Bowl under 49.5 bet still pending.

We lost 1.1 units as the Illini struggled more than anticipated, losing to Nebraska in overtime.

Even so, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 12.2 units, at a positive 29% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

To recap the bets covered above, I am betting the following Super Bowl bets this week:

• Chiefs over 2.5 sacks on FanDuel @-130 for 1 unit

• Chiefs over 3.5 sacks on Fanatics @+145 for 0.5 units

• Chiefs over 1.5 field goals on BetRivers @-132 for 1 unit

• Mahomes under 31.5 rushing yards on ResortsWorld @-130 for 1 unit

• Hurts to win MVP on DraftKings @+350 for 0.5 units

• JuJu Smith-Schuster over 29.5 yards on BallyBet @+220 for 0.5 units

• AJ Brown first to 50 scrimmage yards on Caesars @+600 for 0.3 units

• Under 49.5 on BetMGM @-110 for 1 unit (from last week)

We now have 80,000 readers of this newsletter (!!), so if you like any of the “over” bets I mentioned, act quickly.

For the game, I’m leaning toward taking the Eagles +1.5, but I’m acutely aware of Mahomes’ record in games like this one, and it’s unlikely to be a large wager if I make it.

Next week we’ll talk about an incredible evolution in the Juice Reel app and how to get maximum value out of their sharp bettors’ skill. Don’t miss it!

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