The NFL is Different

Author’s note (again!):

I’ll use this section to showcase bettors I subscribe to from the Juice Reel marketplace.

Expert bettor Warren Sharp, who I’ve highlighted twice, went 2-1 in Week 4 and is now 5-1 overall betting three NFL props per week.

Here were last week’s plays:

Matthew Golden went over 21 yards on his first catch of the Sunday night game, and it was electric!

I’ve been making money on his information and wanted to invite readers to join me in subscribing to get Warren’s plays for Week 5 and beyond. Give him a shot!

Watching the NFL this year feels a bit different to me.

Three things stand out in particular:

1) Kickers are attempting and making very long field goals.

2) Coaches are going for it on 4th-and-short in cases they’d likely have kicked field goals in the past (35 - 50 yards).

3) Kickoff rule tweaks seem to have teams playing on short-fields more often after scores.

So today I’ll share my thinking and research as I try to turn those anecdotal observations into profitable betting opportunities. These could be gold mines and they might be dead-ends, so even I don’t know quite where we are headed!

As always, we’ll close with this week’s (NFL) bets of the week, including tonight’s game!

Let’s get after it.

Are My Observed Trends Real?

Here’s what I’ve been able to find in terms of quantifiable evidence on the trends I observed:

1) Kickers are attempting and making very long field goals.

This seems generally true in recent years, though not uniquely true in 2025. 

Leaguewide, kickers are 56/76 on 50+ (73.7%) so far this season — just a tick below last year’s blistering early pace (61/81, 75.3% through four weeks in 2024) and shy of the 2022 record-setting four-week mark (77.4%).

This blog post confirms modern kickers are 20 percentage points more accurate on kicks of 50-54 yards than 1999-2003, and 40 percentage points more accurate on kicks of 55-59 yards.

Check the visual:

As of 2025, the NFL now lets teams pre-prep “K-balls” (Resolution G-2, 2025), potentially supporting the increased accuracy.

2) Coaches are going for it on 4th-and-short in cases they’d likely have kicked field goals in the past.

This seems correct in recent years and 2025.

Leaguewide volume and success on 4th-down are way up.

• 2014: 451 4th-down attempts, 46% conversion

• 2024: 766 attempts, up 60% (!!), 57% conversion — the highest in 30+ years.

Further evidence is the shift in fourth-down play types. Punts now account for a much smaller share of fourth-down plays: 61.2% (2018) → 51.2% (2025), with league punts per game falling to a record 3.65 this season.

3) Kickoff rule tweaks seem to have teams playing on short-fields more often after scores.

This is confirmed.

Compared to pre-2024, post-score drives have been starting several yards closer to midfield on average.

With the old rules (2023), average post-kickoff starting field position was about the 25.6-yard line.

In 2024 with the “dynamic kickoff” (touchback to the 30), return rate jumped to 33% (from 21.8% in 2023).

Teams often preferred the touchback because the average return only reached ~28.8, while a touchback gave them the 30—pushing the league’s average post-kickoff start to ~30.1. Net: roughly +4.5 yards vs. 2023.

2025 tweak (touchback to the 35): With more returns (which average around the high-20s), the average start after a dynamic kickoff is ~29.5, still well above the 2023 baseline.

The new format forces more live returns and sets generous placements on certain dead balls (e.g., touchbacks to 30/35, kicks short of the landing zone to the 40), mechanically nudging field position up.

Now let’s consider about how we might bet these quantified observations.

Relevant Betting Markets

Here are betting markets I considered but decided against:

1. Longest Field Goal O/U - if this market was still being priced like it was 2004, we could all get rich and retire. Unfortunately the trend of longer field goals is loud and obvious, so I don’t expect any pricing advantages.

2. Field Goals Made O/U - The 4th down aggression mentioned above works against more kicking, not for it. But that is offset by the rise of deep field goals. I’m not sure how this might fit in.

3. Total Field Goal Yardage O/U - Same issue as the last betting market. We can expect longer field goals in lower volume, but this feels very game flow dependent.

Here’s where I think we make our move:

1st Half Last Scoring Play - I see the probability of the final scoring play of a half being a field goal bolstered by our trends.

In end-of-half situations, the waning clock neutralizes the negative effect we’d feel from coaches going for it on more 4th-downs. Better starting field position, and increased deep kicking accuracy, should combine to increase the likelihood of closing drives ending in a made kick.

I’ll share details on pricing in “Bet of the Week” below, but this is definitely a market I plan to situationally bet in the modern NFL!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week was again profitable!

We won both Thursday bets when the game script led to a big Seahawks lead (and eventual win) and a dearth of rushing attempts/yards for Demercado.

Even with the Titans’ loss and continued futility (womp womp) we netted 0.33 units of profit.

Since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 18.93 units, with a positive 19% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• SF vs LA - 1st Half Last Scoring Play FG/Safety @-122 on FanDuel for 0.5 units

My AI-assisted analysis prices this at 60–62% (moneyline -150 to -163). The breakeven win percentage at -122 is 54.9%, so there’s a 5–7 percentage point cushion, and I view this as worth a bet.

I considered the venue, skill of kickers, total points, expected game scenario (SF playing backups in key offensive roles), and coaching aggression.

• Over 32.5 Passing Attempts Mac Jones @-128 on FanDuel for 1 unit

I expect the following factors to increase the number of attempts for San Francisco:

• Rams are 7.5+ point favorite, so SF likely playing from behind.

• Mac Jones is a poor runner, so most dropbacks will lead to pass attempts, less cannibalization from scrambles.

• Jones average depth of target is half a yard shorter than Purdy, leading to a couple extra check-down attempts that might be sacks.

If you want visibility into all of my NFL bets this weekend, you can subscribe to my profile on JuiceReel: InsiderOB.

The first week is free (!!), I have lots of bets sync'd and am chatting with subscribers on Kalshi, prediction-market betting and lots of other things.

Check me out here if you’re interested!

Next week we’ll keep the NFL focus.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!