Timely Betting Reminders and Content

I’ve been getting some flack for getting this newsletter out too late in the day for people to participate in our recent NCAA basketball “Bet of the Week” hot streak, so today I'm sending early with sparser content.

I’m going to give you the following:

1. A winning basketball totals bettor on Juice Reel I’ve been impressed by

2. A quick reminder of a very attractive bet type that feels timely

3. A link to a great podcast episode

4. An ask for your questions/future topic

As always, we’ll keep our winning ways going and close with this week’s Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

A Bettor Worth Tailing (if you have the bankroll)

I’ve been keeping track of bets being made by “The Sharp Report” over the past few months.

He is the #6 overall bettor on the leaderboard, but the bulk of his bets are game totals (over/under bets) on NBA or college basketball games.

He has a ~14% ROI on totals bets over the last year and is beating the closing line by nearly 5% on average.

These are not markets I usually bet, but that is a fantastic ROI over a large bet sample.

Who should subscribe?

I’d recommend this to people who fit the following criteria:

• You bet enough that his $50/week subscription price will pay for itself in winning bets. You need to bet at least $100 per play, and ideally more like $200+

• You have access to enough sportsbooks/exchanges to get a good price in tailing. If you’re in a state with 4+ books and/or have access to Novig, Kalshi, ProphetX etc., you can capture good value.

Making Futures Bets Mid-season

In today’s betting environment, you can make futures bets at any point during the season, not just before games begin.

Futures markets often have the lowest house edge you can find, at times even putting the math in your favor.

A quick browse on Juice Reel’s futures tab identified this Rockets’ season win total market offering a 2% house edge.

With prediction markets, you can bring that figure even lower.

So make some sharp & fun win totals futures for the homestretch of the NBA season!

FWIW, I like the value on the Cavs.

How to Build a Basic Sports Model

I am often asked how to build a betting model for various sports. I don’t think I am the best authority to answer that question, but I found this podcast very helpful for beginners.

If that sounds interesting to you, check it out!

What Questions Do You Have?

I’m planning content for the next few months and I'd love to know what topics or questions are top of mind for my readers!

Please hit reply to this email and share your questions!

I promise to cover as many as I can in future writing.

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week our winning train kept on running.

Tennessee State defeated Lindenwood 89-80, covering our 3.5-point spread and winning us one half-unit.

With that outcome, we’re again at a new all-time high!

Since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 25.11 units, with a positive 16.5% ROI.

A $100 bettor would be up $2,511 if they made every bet in this section! We’ll keep tallying weekly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Northern Colorado Moneyline @ -110 on BetMGM for 0.5 units (Tonight)

Northern Colorado had answers for EWU’s double-teaming and zones in their first matchup, so I believe EWU will need an extreme win on 3PT% variance to pull this game out.

• SE Missouri -3.5 @ -110 on DraftKings for 0.5 units (Tonight)

More OVC action this week, as SEMO hosting Tennessee State is basically an eliminator game for a semifinal bye in the conference tourney. SE Missouri’s athletic wing players match TSU’s strength, and I expect them to get a lot of easy points near the basket and cover this spread.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!