From Bust to Robust (Part 1)

I’ve been getting to the gym more often, and it wasn’t long before YouTube figured me out.

Their algorithm served me a video about how to “get lean” regardless of the body fat level you’re starting from.

The gist was: you will fail if you try to jump from 30% body fat down to 10%.

Instead, you should take compounding steps to get from 30% to 25%, and then from 25% to 20%, all the way down to a ripped physique.

Here’s a visual from the video:

While I may or may not end up looking like the top-left photo, this video gave me inspiration!

A methodical approach will also work better than a “crash diet” in our journey toward profitable sports betting.

So today’s newsletter is a part one of a three-part guide to becoming a consistently profitable sports bettor, step by step, regardless of your starting point.

As always, we’ll look to continue winning and close with our bet of the week.

Let’s get after it.

While readers of this newsletter are likely somewhat thoughtful about wagering, a huge swath of new casual bettors start from the bottom (Stage 1). Let’s take a look.

Stage 1 – You’re Busted (ROI -30% or worse)

The sports-betting equivalent of morbid obesity.

Where you’re at:

• You place every wager on DFS-style pick’em apps (PrizePicks, Underdog) or one retail sportsbook (likely FanDuel or DraftKings) that treats you well.

• You parlay everything and bet lots of pre-created Same-Game Parlays (SGPs) that price at +3000 but bury 50%+ implied hold. You love parlaying a group of moneyline favorites when you’re not sure what else to bet.

• You fire for fun every day! You back your favorite team, MNF overs, and star running backs to score 2+ TDs.

What Has to Be True

To drop 30 cents on every wagering dollar, something structural—not just “bad luck”—is happening:

1. You play against massive vig. If you coin-flip bet into –110 sides you’d lose ~4.5% long-term. You couldn’t lose more if you tried! Hitting –30% means you’re swimming in markets where the book has an 8x larger edge—the DFS pick’em payout tables and long-shot SGP multipliers are crushing you.

2. No price discovery. You accept whatever number the first app shows. Chiefs moneyline at –125? Fine. The same bet is –110 two taps away, but you never look—handing the house another 4-5% edge before the game kicks off.

3. Hedging when you’re winning. You “cash out” or “hedge” in rare times your parlays start out strong, taking more money out of your pocket.

Monthly Snapshot

Your Typical Ticket

How to level up

At this stage, we’ll start with the basics.

1) Cut pick’em apps & limit your parlays to 3 legs or fewer. By simply removing the emptiest calories from your betting diet, you’ll slash your expected loss by ~15%.

Learn more about Parlay Odds and the invisible tax of SGPs.

2) Have 3+ Books, Line-shop every wager. You’ll make the exact same bets at better prices: Chiefs –7 at –110 vs. –125 elsewhere. Exact same fun, fewer losing calories.

Learn more about Line Shopping in 2025.

3) Maximize the value of your promotions. Books love bettors at this stage and will pound you with promotions. You can turn every free-bet/no-sweat into a +300–+500 single wager; cash out 65–70% of face value and add some free green into the mix.

Learn how to get a lot more juice from your promotions.

Master these habits and you graduate to Stage 2 with losses trimmed near the –10% range — taking the first step from bust to robust.

Bet of the Week $$

The NY Liberty cruised last week, winning by 13 and covering the 5.5 point spread with ease. This won us one half-unit, I hope you joined in!

With that win, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are now ahead 18.4 units (an all-time high), at a positive 20% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week:

• Seattle Mariners moneyline (vs Texas) -170 on Kalshi (or -175 on BetMGM) for 0.5 units

I like Seattle at this price tonight.

At home the Mariners win 63% of games, matching the bet’s 63% breakeven, while the Rangers drop 58% on the road.

Seattle starter George Kirby owns a 3.56 xFIP and microscopic walk rate, facing Kumar Rocker’s 5.73 ERA and bottom-tier underlying metrics.

Seattle’s offense (110 wRC+) grades two tiers above Texas (90) and their rested, newly reinforced bullpen contrasts with a Rangers relief corps taxed last night.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!