Going Against the Narrative

This week’s newsletter is inspired by the following exchange I had with a friend on Tuesday:

That exchange with my friend "The Monster" illustrated an approach I’ve taken to NBA playoff betting the past few years.

It’s not a stat-backed thesis or some deep-cut market analysis.

There's more public betting during the NBA playoffs than any time of year. Because so much casual money enters the market, I’ve found value in fading the expected outcome in a game or a full series.

I believe value can exist in uncomfortable, contrarian spots.

Today we’ll cover my approach to “fading the narrative” in NBA playoff betting. First by explaining the concept; next, by showing how it led to the (successful) Tuesday bets mentioned above, and finally deploying this approach with our Bets of the Week.

Let’s get after it.

What Do I Mean By "Narrative"?

You don’t need a media degree to spot when a team becomes a storyline or the “obvious” side in a game. It happens frequently in the playoffs, as individual games shape the storyline about what "should" happen next.

ESPN covered this concept in a timely piece written today — discussing remaining title contenders and what a championship for each might mean for the perceived state of the league.

Sometimes these takes make sense. But other times, the betting line over-incorporates these public assumptions at the expense of tactical matchup edges or probability.

Take the feeling of inevitability around a Thunder vs. Celtics Finals matchup right now.

Everyone's on the SGA train — rightfully so. The media loves him. OKC’s youth and ball movement are easy to fall for. Boston is the defending champion and is coming back with the same top seven players that guided them to an easy title last year.

But if the whole market is pricing that “certainty” in at a premium, it might be worth exploring the other side.

Cleveland went 64-18 and put up a net rating in the top 20 in modern history.

Since trading for Jimmy Butler, the Warriors (and their championship pedigree) have been performing at a 61-win season-long pace.

I’m not suggesting automatically fading the top two teams, but I am encouraging at least asking the question: What if the dominant narrative is wrong?

Revisiting Tuesday Bets

Here were the three bets I offered “The Monster” on Tuesday:

• Pistons +5.5 (vs Knicks)

• Bucks +8.5 (vs Pacers)

• Nuggets +2 (vs Clippers)

Let’s look at the public “narrative” heading into each:

Knicks vs. Pistons
Narrative: The Knicks were up 3-1, at home, having won two straight in Detroit. The story was already written. They’ll blow out the young Pistons who will come in dejected and wait until next year.
Result: Pistons competed hard the whole way and won outright, sending the series back to Detroit. They covered easily.

Bucks vs. Pacers
Narrative: The Bucks were down 3-1, missing Dame Lillard who suffered a devastating injury, and potentially unraveling behind the scenes. The media was in full panic mode about their future with Giannis.
Result: Bucks built a big lead, played close the whole way, had a chance to win in regulation and covered the 8.5 spread comfortably despite a collapse in OT. The narrative surrounding Giannis’ future persists.

Nuggets vs. Clippers
Narrative: The Clippers had nearly gone up 2-0 in Denver, had public momentum, and were the trendy pick despite being the weaker seed. Jokic was still Jokic, but the Nuggets were not a serious contender given their late-season coaching change.
Result: Jokic put up a triple-double, Jamal Murray had a massive 43-point game, and the Nuggets led by double digits the whole game.

All three picks were narrative fades. All three covered. Two cashed the moneyline.

How to “Fade the Narrative”

If you want to try this approach, here’s a method I use once I have a potential narrative to bet against. This helps me keep myself honest:

1. Check the betting splits on Juice Reel.
Juice Reel’s SharpMush data helps me confirm my hypothesis about if the public is heavily betting one side. If the story is loud and the money is skewed, I’m interested.

Here’s an example from tonight:

The Clippers have received more than 7 times the betting dollars of the Nuggets, despite trailing in the series.

2. Don’t force it.
Not every game has a clean narrative imbalance and some may not feel right. Some matchups are tight or fairly priced. Skip those. Also don’t bet when the angle doesn’t match your studied opinion of the two teams. This approach works best when one team is being hyped disproportionately and you can envision the alternate outcome.

3. Have an actual basketball case.
I prefer to have a qualitative angle beyond “vibes”. One reason I faded the Lakers in live-betting Game 4: exhaustion. LeBron is a legend, but he's also 40. The idea that he’d settle for jumpers and create an opening for Minnesota was a real, foreseeable risk. Narrative says “King James” would will them forward, but I saw a credible reason that might be an exaggeration.

PS - This Is Less Scientific And That’s Okay

This isn’t my usual style of newsletter or betting advice! I’m frequently talking about quantitative edge, deep in pricing models or nuanced probability (like last week’s line shopping breakdown).

I’ve always seen betting as both an art and a science.

And in the playoffs, as a fan of the game, I enjoy trying to understand how teams evolve across a series. How teams respond game to game, which stories get overbought, and how differently a team might perform on a night-to-night basis.

It’s not a perfect or profound system, but in the NBA’s era of parity (six unique champions in the last six seasons) it’s been profitable for me.

And sometimes it’s just more fun.

Bet of the Week $$

Last week, we unexpectedly went 0-2 and lost 1.2 units. While both Orlando and Milwaukee won outright and easily covered the full game spread, both underperformed in the first half and reached halftime off-pace for the first-half spreads we bet.

Even so, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 13.7 units, at a positive 18% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research (and fading the narrative), I am making the following bet this week:

• Denver ML @+230 on DraftKings for 0.4 units (Thursday)

• Houston +5.5 @-112 on ESPN Bet for 1 unit (Friday)

Based on my perception, and Juice Reel showing 88% of the money flowing against these teams, I think the common bettor expects a game 7 in the Nuggets/Clippers series and a Warriors closeout in game 6.

I’m fading both narratives.

Denver has won or stayed very close in every game in this series other than Game 3. Given their playoff pedigree I expect them to show well and like the value of getting them at +230.

Houston just beat the Warriors by 15 in a game they led by 27 going into the 4th quarter. I expect them to stay close on the road as their young stars acclimate to the pace of playoff basketball.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!