Holiday Betting Check In

I’m traveling again, so we’ll keep it short for the second week in a row.

In the next few weeks you can expect content on the following topics:

• Week 18 special situations betting (big opportunities here)

• NFL futures portfolio accounting and reflection (teaser: we are looking great)

• 2025 betting year in review (highs, lows and chaotic moments)

For today, I’ll offer a quick plug of my favorite written series this year, and then jump to this week’s Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

“On the Juice” Series of the Year

With fewer betting events over the summer, I took a shot at categorizing different stages of the journey from novice to sharp bettor in great detail.

Readers seemed to love it, with each piece getting rated more than 70% “awesome” in my survey, and the aggregate rating being close to 80%.

In case you missed it, or want to brush up with some holiday time, here are direct links to the articles.

Click the one that matches your results and dive in:

• From Bust to Robust Stage 1 - You’re Busted (Worse than 30% ROI)

• From Bust to Robust Stage 2 - Better… but Not Good (ROI -25% → -10%)

• From Bust to Robust Stage 3 - Knowledgeable Amateur (ROI -8% → -2%)

• From Bust to Robust Stage 4&5 - Break Even to Pro (Positive ROI)

Happy Holidays, let’s make 2026 an exceptional year of gambling!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week we won our only bet, as we correctly called Zach Charbonnet sticking under 34.5 yards, even with the tough luck of an overtime game. We made 0.5 units.

With that outcome, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 22.3 units, with a positive 16% ROI. We’ll track this every week.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Rockets money line @ -135 on DraftKings for 0.5 units (Tonight)

The Lakers rank 24th defensively and have struggled against playoff contenders. Rockets have been a great offense and a top-10 defense on the season, and their physical, turnover-forcing profile is a good way to grind the Lakers into tougher half-court looks. I like Houston to prevail.

• Chris Oladokun over 17.5 Rushing yards @-109 on BallyBet for 0.25 units (Tonight)

Oladokun has shown a propensity to scramble, rushing 10% of the time in preseason and 12.5% of dropbacks in the regular season (small sample). I expect him to play the full game, and thus see this line as very achievable in a game state in which KC trails. I’m betting small because of the wide range of outcomes.

Next week we’ll go deep on NFL Week 18 specials.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!