How to Bet a Lopsided NBA Finals

The NBA finals do not appear to be a fair fight.

The Thunder come in with the best regular-season point differential in NBA history, winning by an average of 12.9 points.

The Pacers, by contrast, were never expected to be here.

They opened the season at 66-1 to win the championship, the longest odds for any team to make the Finals since at least 1985.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting — taking from the books and giving to bettors — I’m hyped to dig into historical NBA Finals trends and find betting angles worth pursuing.

In today’s newsletter, we’re digging into why the Pacers are fighting history, why the Thunder are an all-time wagon, and why Game 1 presents a compelling betting moment.

Let’s get after it.

The Pacers: A Feel-Good Story That Should End Now

First, I need to credit Indiana.

They’re a fun team with one of the most efficient offenses in the league. They’ve been fearless, out-shooting opponents when it matters most and clawing back from multiple massive deficits to reach this point.

Historically, though, teams like this don’t win the Finals — they often don’t come close.

The Pacers entered the playoffs with 80-1 title odds.

Since 1977, only six teams have reached the Finals with longer odds than 30-1 — all six lost. If Indiana wins, they’d be the biggest pre-playoffs longshot ever to take the title.

That theme shows up in other metrics too.

Indiana entered the year with a projected win total of 46.5.

The last seven teams to make the Finals with win totals of 46.5 or fewer all lost, and none made it to Game 7.

Finally, Indiana won their last two series as underdogs — first over the Cavs, then the Knicks.

Teams who win both the conference semis and finals as underdogs are now 1-6 in the Finals all-time.

It’s expensive to bet this trend directly — the best Thunder title odds I found on Juice Reel sit at -650, here’s the visual:

Because of this, I’ll recommend an alterative Thunder series bet at more digestible odds below.

The Thunder Are a Juggernaut — Against the Spread

While Indiana has defied expectations, Oklahoma City has been beating them into the ground.

The Thunder finished the regular season 61-35-2 against the spread, the best ATS record by a Finals team in decades. If you’d blindly bet $100 on every OKC game this year, you’d be up well over $2,000.

They’ve covered in nine straight games against Eastern Conference opponents, and finished the year 29-2 straight up vs. the East — the best inter-conference win rate in league history.

From a macro view, they’re in rarified air:

• They’ve won 80 total games this season, including playoffs — a feat matched only by the 1996 and 1997 Chicago Bulls and the 2016 Golden State Warriors.

• OKC also became just the sixth team in league history to be favored at -300 or longer in each of their four playoff rounds. The other five teams all won the title.

In their one home game vs. Indiana this season, they won by 21.

I see this as further ammunition by which to find smart ways to back the Thunder.

Game 1: Favorites Have Feasted

Game 1 favorites in the NBA Finals are 18-2 straight up and 17-3 against the spread (!!) since 2005. That’s a wrecking ball.

This year, OKC is favored by 9.5 points (some books are priced at 10) — the second-largest Game 1 Finals spread this century.

No favorites of 5+ points have lost Game 1 since the Shaq/Kobe Lakers were shocked by the balanced Pistons in 2004!

Even though this trend drifts back decades, the extreme skew makes it worth incorporating into our Game 1 betting activity.

Let’s get to the bets.

Bets of the Week $$

Last week we went 0-1 and lost 1 unit. The Knicks disrupted the Pacers offense by picking up Haliburton at halfcourt and gave their fans one last round of over celebrating before going down in 6.

Even so, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 15 units, at a positive 19% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Game 1: OKC -9.5 @-112 on DraftKings for 1 unit

• Series: OKC -2.5 Games (Series Handicap) @-122 on FanDuel for 1 unit (This is a bet for the Thunder to win the series 4-0 or 4-1)

• Game 1: OKC -5.5 (First Half line) @-110 on HardRock for 0.5 units

In addition to following the Game 1 and series outcome trends mentioned above, I’ll add a first-half bet to the mix.

OKC is 11-5 ATS in first halves this postseason, good for a 28% ROI. If the Pacers have one more improbable comeback in them, betting OKC in the first 24 minutes helps keep us out of trouble.

Good luck tonight, and here’s hoping the Thunder keep reaching new heights.

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