NBA Playoff Chaos

This year’s playoffs have been wild.

We’ve already seen four 20+ point comebacks, the most ever, and we’re only early in the second round. Wow.

Last week, I discussed the strategy of fading prevailing narratives in NBA playoff betting.

If you’ve followed that strategy, you’ve likely seen success — no home team won in Round 2 (!!) until the Thunder’s blowout last night.

This week, as the Robin Hood of betting, taking from the books and giving to the bettors, I’ll go deeper on these recent outlier comebacks and size up where we might find a betting edge (in either direction).

We’ll review the crazy outcomes of the last week, consider reasons comebacks might be more common, and identify takeaways for betting.

As always, we’ll close with our NBA bets of the week.

Let’s get after it.

The Comeback Chronicles

The past week of postseason play has delivered some of the most improbable comebacks in recent memory:

• New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics (Games 1 & 2): The Knicks overcame 20-point deficits in consecutive games, marking the first time a team has achieved such a feat in back-to-back playoff games. After the Celtics set a playoff record by missing 45 three-pointers in Game 1, they missed another 30 three-pointers and collapsed at home in Game 2.

• Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (Game 1): Trailing by 11 points late in the game, the Nuggets rallied to secure a last-second win, capitalizing on the Thunder’s strategy of intentionally fouling with a three-point lead late.

• Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Game 2): This one is a doozy. According to ESPN, NBA teams are 3-1,640 when trailing by seven points (or more) in the final minute of the fourth quarter since the 1998 season. That equates to a winning percentage of 0.18%. The Pacers have two of those three wins in the past two weeks, most recently pulling a rabbit out of a hat in Game 2!

Clearly something different is happening in these playoffs, let’s try and figure out why.

Is this Signal or Noise?

Are these comebacks indicative of a broader trend or merely anomalies?

While the frequency of such dramatic turnarounds is unprecedented, several factors might contribute to this phenomenon:

• Increased Three-Point Shooting: This is the biggest driver. Teams are more reliant on three-point shots than ever before, leading to greater scoring variability. When one team goes hot while their opponent goes cold, leads can evaporate in a hurry. Check Kirk Goldsberry’s graphic on this phenomenon below:

• Injuries and Exhaustion: In Cleveland’s case, they were uniquely unhealthy, missing three of their top seven players in Game 2. This left their remaining players fatigued and more susceptible to fatal turnovers or errors in the closing minutes.

• Coaching Adjustments (or lack thereof): Oklahoma City dogmatically fouled when up three in Game 1, creating a higher variance situation that opened the door to a loss rather than going to overtime. Boston seems unnecessarily wed to shooting a massive volume of three-point shots, even late in games when the value of two points increases as possessions dwindle.

Other than the rise of threes, I have no reason to believe modern games are more susceptible to heavy injuries or inflexible coaching than the past. Because of this, I see one type of unexpected comeback as more viable for betting than another. Let’s get into the betting opportunity.

What to Consider in Betting?

First, let’s review the two patterns of comeback we’ve seen of late:

1. A team trails by 20+ points mid-way through a game and closes that gap (like the Knicks…twice).

2. A team trails by multiple possessions with very little time remaining in the game (like the Pacers in Game 2).

I recommend looking for Category 1 opportunities: teams down big with time to come back. I’d avoid trying to find Category 2 opportunities, miracle last minute comebacks.

As described above, the historical probability of what the Pacers have done in the final minute is almost zero. In addition, the logistics of timing your bet will be really difficult.

The massive rise of three-point shooting, however, means leads that feel large based on historical NBA playoff basketball will be more vulnerable, especially against teams like Boston that shoot 3’s at a crazy clip.

In case it’s not obvious, the place to take advantage of this trend would be through in-game betting.

We’ve covered the art of live betting in the past, but here I want to highlight a critical piece of doing this profitably.

Securing the right price is crucial. A comeback bet at +5000 (50:1) offers significantly more value than one at +2500 (25:1), even if both seem like big enticing lines.

I’ve had my best luck using exchange-style platforms like Kalshi, where buying a typical game contract at 3c translates to +3200, and 2c translates to +4900. Kalshi gives me the added benefit of exiting such long-shot bets midstream if my team closes the gap and I want to reduce my risk.

Bets of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-1 but won 0.6 units. The Nuggets covered the spread but did not win outright, losing our money line bet. Houston, on the other hand, won handily, easily covering the 5.5 point spread.

Including that profit, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 14.3 units, at a positive 19% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week (both on Game 3):

• Boston -5 @-110 on DraftKings for 1 unit

• Boston -9.5 @+165 on BetMGM for 0.5 units

With their backs against the wall, I expect the Eastern Conference favorite Celtics to revert to form on the road.

Over the past four seasons Boston has been much better away from home. The Celtics are 22-9 in road playoff games in that period, and they took the season series from the Knicks 4-0 this year, winning two of the four games by 23 or more points.

If you want to get frisky, you can look at longer alt-lines than the -9.5 I recommend above. With a double-digit win, we can all be celebrating Tyrese Haliburton style…

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