My Summer Kalshi Portfolio

It’s been 3 weeks since my last newsletter, and it feels like an eternity!

I mentioned I’d be writing at a reduced cadence over the summer, but I’m happy to be back this week and check in on long-term bets from my Kalshi portfolio.

If you’re new to prediction markets, you can find important context in my earlier series here: (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). Most importantly for today, Kalshi pays more than 3% interest on all free cash or invested positions, so I can grab smaller edges with no regrets.

We’ll conclude with an NBA bet of the week!

Let’s get after it.

NBA Playoff Futures & Draft Angles

My biggest current position is Thunder to win the NBA title.

I’ve been on the Thunder since early in the regular season, and added to the position with some in and out trades during the playoffs.

My thesis was that a dominant young team that could survive injuries would improve odds through the season in a median outcome. I feel great about it.

Here are all of my transactions via Juice Reel’s new trades view:

I plan to hold this the whole way, though I’d consider reducing size if they take a 2-0 lead on the Spurs (who are by far their biggest threat).

Another recent NBA position I took is on the Thunder to not go undefeated in the playoffs.

Quick game by game math told me this was trading far too low, so I entered an order at 92c and was filled by an ambitious Thunder fan.

My last bet in this section was on the #1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft (I think it’ll be Dybantsa or Peterson).

Currently my gains on Wilson not going first are negated by losses on Boozer, but I like the time horizon and potential upside of this position when adjusted for risk. I’m watching it closely because of the potential for inside information.

World Cup

Over the past six months, I’ve been building World Cup positions in two buckets:

• No positions on teams I think are overpriced to win the tournament.

• One Yes position where I liked the number enough to take the other side.

So far, every position is in the money.

Take a look:

Rather than get in to specific team analysis, I’ll encourage everyone to be price conscious and try and create positions like these with advantageous odds.

Futures markets are full of teams people want to bet on. “No” can be boring, but boring at the right price is still profitable. Especially when the position earns interest while you wait.

Long-Term Futures (NCAAB)

I took the same approach in college basketball: use transfer portal and NBA draft news to get ahead of slow-moving futures prices.

Here’s what I have:

I’ll likely trade in and out of this portfolio in upcoming weeks with final NBA draft news, but it’s very achievable to build to this place with a bit of attention and discipline.

I have no bots involved at this point!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

It’s been a few weeks, but disappointingly our most recent Nuggets moneyline bet lost, costing us one half-unit plus vig.

Inclusive of that outcome, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 21.18 units, with a positive 13.6% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week:

• Spurs ML @ -194 on FanDuel for 0.5 units (Tomorrow)

This feels a bit chalky to me at first glance, but at -194, Spurs ML only needs to happen 66.0% to break even, and the market’s -4.5 / 218.5 implies roughly Spurs 111.5, Wolves 107.0 before any closeout or matchup adjustment.

San Antonio has the best defensive rating in these playoffs (102.0), is 16–0 this year when holding teams under 100, and just beat Minnesota 126–97 in Game 5.

With Wemby averaging 20.4 / 11.2 / 4.2 blocks this postseason and confidence that he won’t be ejected early again, I’m comfortable the Spurs are a 70%+ win team here vs the 66% implied by the line.

I’ll be back two weeks from now with a World Cup betting preview.

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!